Investing.com -- Trend-following investors are currently holding significant long positions in European equities and gold, according to analysts at BofA Securities.
The brokerage said that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), which employ systematic trend-following strategies, have built up sizable positions in these assets, raising the risk of sudden reversals if market conditions change.
The EURO STOXX 50 index has seen six consecutive weeks of gains, leading to what BofA describes as "stretched" long positions by CTAs.
While immediate risks of a stop loss appear limited as the index remains close to its all-time high, analysts caution that a pullback of 3-4% could trigger larger unwinds from trend-following funds.
In contrast, U.S. equity positioning among trend-followers remains at more moderate levels, leaving room for further buying if the rally continues. Meanwhile, Chinese equity exposure among CTAs has increased rapidly, with indications that further purchases may be forthcoming.
In the commodities space, gold has emerged as another asset where trend-followers have built aggressive long positions. BofA’s model suggests that CTA positioning in gold now sits above the 90th percentile relative to the past decade.
This suggests that while further additions to gold holdings may be unlikely at current levels, any market weakness could prompt liquidations. Separately, CTAs have been increasing long exposure to copper, indicating a shift in preference among commodities traders.
On the currency front, CTAs remain net long on the U.S. dollar against most major currencies. However, positioning has moderated in recent weeks as the dollar has weakened.
BofA analysts note that further declines in the dollar could lead to additional unwinding of long positions among trend-followers, particularly those employing longer-term strategies.
In fixed income markets, BofA’s report suggests that CTAs are gradually covering short positions in U.S. Treasury (UST) futures as the negative price trend weakens.
A similar trend is observed in German Bund futures, where analysts expect some degree of short covering in the coming week. Conversely, trend-followers who have been heavily allocated to Chinese 10-year bond futures may face pressure to unwind their long positions.
BofA Securities also introduced a new report segment focusing on trend-following strategies in Latin American interest rate markets.
The analysts suggest that CTAs active in the region would likely be paying rates in Brazil, Chile, and Colombia while receiving in Mexico.
In the options market, the report notes that S&P 500 gamma positioning has increased, with short-dated options playing a key role in driving market movements.
BofA analysts caution that as these options expire, gamma exposure could decline sharply, leading to a less extreme positioning environment.