Given its 300 sunny days per year, India is ideally situated for solar power and the largest solar utility company operating there is our speculative pick, explains Vivian Lewis, and international specialist focused on ADRs and editor of Global Investing.
Setting up in business in India itself is sufficiently daunting that my corporate choice, Azure Power (AZRE), is incorporated in Mauritius. It was the first renewable energy company to list in 2016 when it did its initial public offering in October, raising $161 million.
The stock is our top 2019 speculation for growth. The founder and CEO since 2008 is a Silicon Valley professional of Indian heritage, Inderpreet Singh Wadhwa. His father Harkanwal is a director and chief operating officer. Most of the other brass are outsiders.
Azure Power is an integrated project developer which offers guaranteed long-term electricity prices, whatever happens in to oil. It bids for government supported sites like railway station rooftops with a very sharp pencil thanks to a decade of experience and over 3 dozen plants.
It also tapped the “green bond” market with success in 2017 and again this year with many of the same lenders. It builds solar parks. Its solar tariffs are close to grid parity in many areas. It aims to generate 5 gigaWatts by the end of 2020.
Azure Power uses an Indian fiscal year (to March 31) and in its Q2 this year sales rose 22% to INR 2,225.7 billion rupees and operating income rose 20% to INR 1,210.2 billionn rupees. Adjusted EBITDA hit INR 1,807.7 billion ($25 million), up 21% from Q2 2017-8.
The net loss was INR 297.6 billion vs a loss in the prior Q2 of INR 1,240.5 billion. The loss per share was 11 rupees vs a loss of 42 a year before. Azure makes solar power generating facilities but it doesn't yet make money. Moreover, India charges income tax at about 20% which adds to losses.
By the end of this FY, Azure expects to put an additional 1300-1400 megaWatts (mW) of power generation in service and get revenues of $143-151 million from new projects, about INR 1,023 to 1,032 billion rupees—assuming the currency doesn't fall further. It is close to break-even and may cross over into profit later next year.
Its cost per mW of new solar power in the first half fell to INR 44.3 million ($610,000) and the project cost per mW was INR 50.78 million ($700,000) thanks to cheaper modules and better skills in placing them.
From the start, the younger Mr Wadhwa knew how to open international and New Delhi financial taps for solar plants: the International Finance Corp. (the market arm of the World Bank); German, Canadian, Quebec, and French development banks; Foundation Capital of Menlo Park; India's Helion Ventures Fund; Indian Railways; and government bodies in 23 states including Rajasthan, Punjab, and Gujarat.
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