Investing.com -- The recent stock market correction, which Yardeni Research has dubbed the "Trump Thump," has seen the S&P 500 fall 10.1% since February 19.
Despite Friday’s rally and "extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective," the firm is not convinced the correction is over.
In past downturns, such extreme sentiment often prompted a "Fed-Put easing response."
However, Yardeni sees that as unlikely when Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his presser following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, as he is expected to reiterate that "the Fed is in no hurry to lower interest rates."
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent "said this morning that there are ’no guarantees’ that there won’t be a recession"—a comment that weighed on futures.
Yardeni notes that the market may be searching for a bottom but remains "tarrified" by Trump’s tariff threats and actions."
The firm suggests that the market "might bottom after April 2, when Trump imposes reciprocal tariffs all around the world if they lead to tariff-reduction negotiations."
The correction has largely been due to "falling valuation multiples, especially for the Magnificent-7 stocks," as concerns over tariffs and recession risks mount.
However, the firm states that industry analysts "haven’t gotten either the tariff memo or the recession memo," as S&P 500 forward earnings per share hit a record $278.59 during the March 13 week.
Historically, the S&P 500 "tended to bottom when the index was more than 20% below its 200-day moving average." The index is currently only 1.8% below its 200-dma, suggesting further downside risk.
Meanwhile, "most foreign stock markets have outperformed the US stock market," which Yardeni sees as a sign that Trump’s tariffs "are more likely to depress the US economy than those in the rest of the world."