Tesla's 'Very Tough' Q2 Could Result in Strong Q3 Recovery

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Tesla's 'Very Tough' Q2 Could Result in Strong Q3 Recovery - Morgan Stanley

Stock Markets Jun 14, 2022 08:01AM ET

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Tesla's 'Very Tough' Q2 Could Result in Strong Q3 Recovery - Morgan Stanley

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By Senad Karaahmetovic

Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk has rallied troops once again after telling staff the electric vehicle (EV) maker is having a “very tough quarter.”

A report, over the weekend, noted that Musk told employees that Tesla is having a “very tough quarter,” hence workers need to “rally hard to recover.”

“This has been a very tough quarter, primarily due to supply chain and production challenges in China, so we need to rally hard to recover!” Musk wrote to staff, according to Electrek.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has reflected on Musk’s comments to note that disruptions felt by Tesla are “understandable” given supply chain bottlenecks and Shanghai lockdowns. The analyst reminds investors that Shanghai generates >40% of global production for Tesla and over 50% of EV maker’s profit.

“As Tesla has shown throughout its history, it can make up substantial lost ground with accelerated deliveries into the close of a quarter where disproportionate amounts of a full quarter’s production can occur in the final week or two,” he told clients in a note.

Still, Jonas says Tesla is likely to stage a strong recovery in Q3 after a difficult second quarter.

“Consensus forecasts of <$18bn total company revenues appears to discount a sequential QoQ decline in delivery volume (to below 300k units for 2Q). Any lingering impact of the Shanghai lockdown on Tesla production probably resolves itself before year end.”

The analyst would also “allow for near-term margin pressure” as both Texas and Berlin are in the process of ramping up while the battery costs continue to surge.

Tesla shares are up 0.5% in pre-market after falling over 7% yesterday.

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