Investing.com -- Tesla is likely to report first-quarter deliveries of approximately 350,000 units, significantly below the 418,000-unit consensus estimate, according to a note from Barclays.
The bank expects a 10% year-over-year decline in Q1 deliveries, with volumes down 30% sequentially.
"1Q is seasonally Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s weakest quarter," said Barclays, but additional headwinds this year include the global Model Y refresh ("Juniper") and weak demand in key markets, particularly Europe.
Barclays said the Model Y refresh negatively impacted January and February deliveries as Tesla upgraded production lines across all four factories—Shanghai, Berlin, Fremont, and Austin.
While Tesla sold older Model Y inventory at a discount, many customers are said to have waited for the refreshed version.
The bank explains that Tesla launched Model Y Juniper sales in China on February 26, in Europe on March 7, and in the U.S. on March 8. Barclays expects March sales to improve, but production ramp speed remains uncertain.
In Europe, Barclays says QTD sales are down 43% year-over-year, with German sales falling 76% in February.
They also noted that while European EV sales rose 34% year-over-year, Tesla underperformed amid Model Y delays and potential negative sentiment surrounding Elon Musk’s political activity.
In China, Tesla sales through the first 10 weeks of Q1 were down 8% year-over-year. The firm expects March deliveries to rise to 75,000, helping offset earlier weakness.
For the U.S., Barclays sees Q1 deliveries at 125,000, down 42,000 sequentially. Tesla’s Cybertruck production cuts and pricing incentives are said to suggest demand challenges.
Additionally, Barclays believes the U.S. market will see a limited impact from the Model Y refresh, as Tesla is currently selling only a premium "Launch Series" version at a $12,000 markup.