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Tesla dips after Q1 deliveries report; analyst reactions mixed

Published 04/03/2023, 07:00 AM
Updated 04/03/2023, 07:08 AM
© Reuters.  Tesla (TSLA) delivered 422,875 EVs in Q1, missing analyst expectations

© Reuters. Tesla (TSLA) delivered 422,875 EVs in Q1, missing analyst expectations

By Senad Karaahmetovic

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) said yesterday it delivered 422,875 electric vehicle (EV) units in the first quarter of 2023, missing the FactSet consensus for 432,000 deliveries. The EV company said it produced 440,808 EVs in Q1.

Shares are down 1.5% in premarket trading.

"We continued to transition towards a more even regional mix of vehicle builds, including Model S/X vehicles in transit to EMEA and APAC, Tesla said.

For the same period last year, Tesla delivered 310,000 EV units and a record 405,278 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2022.

In 2022, vehicle deliveries rose 40% year-over-year to 1.31 million. For this year, analysts expect Tesla to deliver ~1.8M EVs.

Several analysts weighed in on Tesla ahead of the Q1 deliveries report. Most notably, CFRA analysts upgraded Tesla to Strong Buy from Buy with a price target of $275 per share.

Here's how 5 Tesla analysts saw the Q1 delivery and production report from the EV giant.

Goldman Sachs: "We consider the 1Q23 delivery report to be consistent with our view that Tesla is well positioned for long-term growth, and that the price reductions Tesla has implemented are helping to expand its addressable market and improve demand... We maintain our Buy rating on the stock, and we raise our 12-month price target to $225 (from $200)."

Bernstein: "We continue to believe that Tesla will need to further lower prices this year and/or next year to achieve its volume targets, incrementally pressuring margins... Many investors believe that Tesla's recent price cuts reflect a structural cost advantage that will enable it to pressure rivals and capture outsize volume and dominate the EV market. We maintain that price cuts have and will undermine industry profitability (including Tesla's), but that incumbents are deep pocketed and not likely to back down."

Oppenheimer: "While we remain on the sidelines, we view vehicle sell-through as positive in sum, but continue to have reservations about mix and margins meeting expectations in 1H23 despite TSLA's clear cost advantage vs. peers."

Citi: "No major surprises in the overall delivery number... Net-net, with the stock having traded well into the Q1 delivery report, we’d expect a slight/modest pullback on what will likely be regarded as an inline outcome with softer mix and lingering inventory build concerns."

Guggenheim: "Based on our discussions leading up to the P&D report we believe buy-side expectations were in the 425-430K range... We expect a negative reaction to the P+D report following the sizable run into print (+15% last 2 weeks vs. SPY +5%)."

Tesla stock price closed at $207.46 on Friday to hit a new 4-week high. Shares are up 68.4% year-to-date (YTD).

Latest comments

So, in other words, it delivered that is just 97.887% of what was projected.  Who's panic shorting?  LOL.  Just cover.
it was a beat! MO8ONS at Reuteurs
I guess earnings do not matter??? WTF Just show that you are delivering cars, who cares that you dropped prices to do it? Stonks have become Mickey Mouse World!
everyone can do EV now. TSLA was known for its potential fsd system. however, fsd seems to be a thing in the future at this point. without it, every EV is just about the same. I would not trust fsd to drive the car for me, would you? so why would I pay an expensive price for a car while I could do better with a different brand with a much attractive design. it's only going to get much more competitive and price will have to come down further.
It just seems that those against Musk manipulated the facts as the Street estimate was 420k. They really want the headline that Tesla missed estimates.  Politics infused into the markets?
just make an ev car with no FSD AT $25K then they would be able to beat the heck out of Toyota, ford, gm and dominate the us auto market. scrap the BShit fsd to save money for the 25k car price. I would buy 2 of these.
I had read that delivery consensus was 421.519. Not sure how they missed expectations. Perhaps others chose estimates to be higher?  Where could I have found the "real" consensus?.
Worldwide EV are booming. Even Vietnam is producing excellent EV and sold to the world. TSLA expanding has to be slowing. With American saving due to the wild $ printing of FED during the COVID time id diminishing TSLA US sales should be flat in the future if US politician can stop EV form EU companies to take advantage of US EV subsidies. Otherwise, TSLA would lose some market to EV from EU and Japan.
Tesla continues to gain auto sales market share. Suggesting sales will be flat is absurd. Over 1.5 million preorders for the cyber truck alone plus the added demand driven by government rebates and production cost savings being passed on to consumers will continue to drive demand. Look for 1.8 million unit sales this year and 2.4+ million in 2024
Why are you guys printing lies ? Tesla beat. Expectations was not 430k, it was 420+k. Tesla delivered 440k total.
440k is the production
 The delivery estimate on the street was 220k and not 232k as the "missing expectations" headline suggests. Clearly meant to throw some cold water on the positive report. The demand will continue to be there as they drop prices without reducing margins as they grow efficiencies and reduce costs.  They will produce about 1.8 million units in 2023 and drive competitors to unprofitability.  Ford lost 3 Billion in the last year on EV's as Tesla made over $6 billion.
another fanboy 🤐
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