Investing.com - U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs have pushed global financial markets to a "crucial inflection point" that could determine the ultimate impact of the changes, according to analysts at Vital Knowledge.
Markets have whipsawed in recent days, as investors raced to keep pace with rapid-fire alterations to Trump’s levies. Following extreme stock market volatility and steep bond market sell-off after he first announced sweeping tariffs on a range of countries on April 2, the president rolled out a partial 90-day pause to most of his elevated reciprocal duties last week.
Late on Friday, the White House also announced a temporary halt to reciprocal tariffs for some tech-related products like smartphones and computers. Trump and a slew of other officials have stressed that the moves do not amount to exemptions, suggesting that further tech-specific tariffs could be coming in the days ahead.
Still, technology stocks in China, the central target of Trump’s duties, rose sharply on Monday, while shares in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) -- whose supply chain relies heavily on China -- climbed in premarket U.S. trading.
Against this backdrop, the Vital Knowledge analysts led by Adam Crisafulli said traders are now trying to discern if the current environment is more akin to the bailout of Bear Stearns in 2008 or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.
"The market is leaning toward the former, but the present trajectory points to the latter," the analysts wrote.
They added that a "sustained break beneath" a level of 5,050 in the S&P 500 is "more likely than one up through 5,450." The benchmark index closed on Friday at 5,363.36.
"[W]hile the White House might be responding to market-based signals, their multi-front trade war is unleashing forced they won’t be able to control if the current situation continues for much longer," the analysts said, flagging that "growth is cooling, inflation is rising, and corporate profits will face headwinds."
"[A]t a certain point, no amount of retreating will be enough to contain the tsunami," they said.