Investing.com -- Shares in SSE (LON:SSE) climbed more than 2% Friday after Bernstein analysts said they see the UK energy firm as a potential takeover target for the French power group Engie SA (EPA:ENGIE).
According to Bernstein, SSE’s current share price presents a compelling valuation opportunity, with about an 18% upside to their bear case valuation, which does not account for pipeline or under-construction assets.
SSE’s shares are trading at approximately 10 times price-to-earnings (P/E), significantly below the long-term average of around 13.5 times.
“Given SSE’s recent weak share-price performance, a key investor question we have received is whether SSE could be a takeover target and if so, who could be interested and capable of orchestrating such a deal,” analysts led by Deepa Venkateswaran said.
SSE, which has a strong presence in the UK, operates in power networks, renewables, and flexible generation. Analysts believe these sectors would align strategically with Engie’s ambitions to expand in power networks and build out renewables. An acquisition could provide Engie with geographical diversification and accelerate its strategic objectives.
From a financial perspective, Bernstein’s pro-forma analysis indicates that an acquisition could be feasible for Engie.
Assuming a 30% premium on SSE’s current share price, a deal financed equally through debt (including hybrids) and equity could lead to approximately a 16% earnings accretion for Engie by 2027. This structure would result in leverage of around 4.25 times, with new equity issuance representing about 30% of Engie’s current market capitalization.
Bernstein further estimates that Engie’s return on average capital employed (ROACE) would be between approximately 6-8% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, which is close to Engie’s target of 7-9% for FY27.
Furthermore, Engie could consider reallocating its uncommitted capital expenditure budget or making divestments to reduce the equity or debt needed for the transaction.
SSE’s UK networks division is considered undervalued, with an implied discount to the regulated asset value (RAV) of about 17%, despite a positive growth outlook and an improving returns environment.
“SSE’s largely UK footprint brings exposure to power networks, a stable network regulation regime and strong optionality on renewables,” analysts wrote.
“The high degree of strategic alignment with Engie’s stated ambitions in our view makes a takeover of SSE attractive for Engie and therefore gives SSE shareholders optionality,” they concluded.