Investing.com -- A tradable rally for the S&P 500 is likely, Morgan Stanley strategists said, with the benchmark index sitting at the lower end of their forecasted first-half range.
Last Thursday saw the index drop to the bottom of its predicted range for the first half of the year, between 5500 and 6100, due to various factors including negative earnings revisions, fiscal challenges, immigration enforcement, and tariffs. The 5500 is seen as an important support level.
Following recent declines, U.S. indices reached a level of oversold territory not seen since 2022, as measured by the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Additionally, Morgan Stanley noted a significant easing in sentiment and positioning gauges, with an expected improvement in seasonal trends towards the latter half of March.
The firm also said that recent weakness in the U.S. dollar could provide a boost to earnings revisions, while a decline in interest rates may benefit economic surprise indices.
“We stand by our call from last week that 5500 should provide support for a tradable rally led by cyclicals, lower quality, and expensive growth stocks that have been hit the hardest and where the short base is the greatest,” strategists led by Michael J. Wilson wrote in a Monday note.
However, the strategists caution that policy uncertainty has escalated, posing persistent growth risks in the coming months.
“Not only is policy being sequenced in a more growth-negative way to start the year, the speed and uncertainty around new policy introduction is denting investor, consumer and corporate confidence,” Wilson and his team explained.
“We ultimately think the market will focus on the positive aspects of the Trump policy agenda , but the path is going to take time and is unlikely to be smooth,” they added.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has the means to intervene if necessary, particularly if growth indicators such as labor data show significant deterioration or if there is stress in credit and funding markets, which for the moment remain stable.
Recent growth data has been stable, with ISM Manufacturing and Services above 50, payrolls largely meeting expectations, and jobless claims showing no signs of labor market stress.
To rule out a more serious economic slowdown, strategists are watching for payroll gains of at least 100,000, a steady unemployment rate, ISM Manufacturing staying above the mid-40s, ISM Services holding above 50, and earnings revisions breadth improving in line with seasonal trends.
They also highlight the importance of how the S&P 500 reacts to the 5,500 level, given its fundamental and technical significance.
“If it doesn’t, that’s a potential sign that growth could be deteriorating faster than expected, and recession risk could be increasing along with the odds of our bear case outcome,” they said.
Morgan Stanley’s current year-end base case target for the S&P 500 is 6500.