Investing.com -- RBC Capital Markets lowered its Full Self-Driving (FSD) pricing and robotaxi penetration assumptions for Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) on Monday, leading to a price target cut to $320 from $440.
The investment bank now expects that Tesla’s FSD subscription will decrease to $50 per month by 2026, compared to the current $100 per month rate. This revision is based on the increasing standardization of Level 2+ autonomy features by other OEMs, which are not being used as profit centers but rather as product differentiators.
“Previously we assumed that pricing declined to $50/mo and then ramped back to $100/mo by 2030 given level 4 options, which we thought could command higher pricing,” RBC analyst Tom Narayan said in a note.
The change in perspective has been driven by recent interactions and demonstrations from companies like Mercedes Benz Group (ETR:MBGn), Mobileye (NASDAQ:MBLY), and Aptiv (NYSE:APTV).
RBC also adjusted its expectations for Tesla’s robotaxi market share, lowering it to 10% from the previous 20% in both the Chinese and European markets to reflect the growing competition Tesla faces in China, where domestic OEMs are expected to dominate the robotaxi market.
In turn, these revisions have led to a decrease in RBC’s valuation of Tesla’s FSD and robotaxi segments.
The FSD valuation has been cut to $211 billion from $383 billion, and the robotaxi valuation to $641 billion from $879 billion.
Moreover, the forecast for delivery growth in 2025 has been lowered to 11% from 14%, with regulatory credits expected to be $3 billion, down from $4 billion, primarily due to changes in the EU CO2 rule.
Tesla suffered a sharp decline in sales in Europe and China at the beginning of the year, contributing to the recent sell-off in the carmaker’s stock. However, RBC’s Narayan suggests that concerns over Tesla’s deliveries might be overstated.
“These regions represent a small portion of Tesla’s total sales compared to their annual figures,” the analyst said.
On the other hand, the U.S. market, a larger contributor to Tesla’s sales performance, has seen modest increases.
The delivery numbers could also be influenced by factors such as planned factory shutdowns for the Model Y refresh and typical early-year sales slowdowns.
Additionally, potential buyers may be delaying purchases in anticipation of new models like the ’Model 2’ and the refreshed Model Y, which could positively impact Tesla in the second and third quarters of the year, Narayan said.