Investing.com -- Amazon has led post-Liberation Day price hikes in the furniture sector, raising concerns among analysts at MoffettNathanson who are closely tracking tariff-related shifts in ecommerce dynamics.
“We’ve observed Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) increasing prices the most since Liberation Day at +4%,” the firm wrote in a new report, noting that Walmart (NYSE:WMT) followed with a 2% increase and Wayfair (NYSE:W) with 1%.
These adjustments come amid widespread disruptions triggered by the 145% China tariffs, which have forced many online merchants to rely on domestic inventory and pass on costs to consumers.
MoffettNathanson created a custom index of 50 furniture items to monitor inventory levels and pricing behavior across major platforms.
The analysts said the furniture category, heavily reliant on Chinese imports, “is the canary in the coal mine for ecommerce.”
Inventory pressures appear to be mounting. “Walmart’s out-of-stock rate exploded to 20% in just under a month, Amazon’s has increased to 10%, and Wayfair’s stayed at an impressive 2%,” stated the firm.
Wayfair’s relatively stable inventory drew praise but also sparked caution. “For suppliers, the relationship likely carries more long-term importance and during a period of pull forward purchasing, the platform represents the most attractive consumer channel,” MoffettNathanson said.
However, they warned that Wayfair’s pricing stability may come at a cost: “We are concerned Wayfair’s prices are due to greater control over the selling price and it’s coming at the expense of take rate, or said differently, Wayfair’s gross margin.”
Despite optimism in equity markets for Amazon, Shopify (NASDAQ:SHOP), and Wayfair, reflecting “an immediate cessation of the 145% China tariffs,” MoffettNathanson expressed skepticism.
“Sentiment is supported by a ‘we aren’t seeing it in the data yet’ narrative,” they wrote, while pointing to “plummeting import volumes and leading indicators suggesting merchants are burning through their stateside inventory.”
They added, “We wouldn’t be surprised to see a continuation of this trend through 1H25.”