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Is This a Healthy Correction or New Bear Market for Silver?

Published 08/31/2021, 10:14 AM
Updated 08/31/2021, 11:31 AM
© Reuters.  Is This a Healthy Correction or New Bear Market for Silver?

Investors in the precious metals space have had to endure a painful 12-month stretch, with gold (GLD (NYSE:GLD)) down 18%, silver (SLV), and many miners down as much as 45% in the same period. This pathetic performance has been even more frustrating considering the backdrop of inflation readings at multi-year highs and ultra-loose monetary policy. However, while we have seen significant damage to the short-term charts for gold and silver during this lengthy correction, the long-term charts remain bullish, with minimal technical damage.Investors in the precious metals space have had to endure a painful 12-month stretch, with gold (GLD) down 18%, silver (SLV), and many miners down as much as 45% in the same period. This pathetic performance has been even more frustrating considering the backdrop of inflation readings at multi-year highs and ultra-loose monetary policy. However, while we have seen significant damage to the short-term charts for gold and silver during this lengthy correction, the long-term charts remain bullish, with minimal technical damage.

Most importantly, one key ratio continues to point to this being a correction within a bull market vs. a new bear market. For investors looking to buy the dip, one of the most attractive names looks to be GoGold Resources (GLGDF). Let’s take a closer look below:

With sentiment in the toilet and many investors disgusted with their precious metals holdings and some leaving the space altogether, it’s not surprising that we’re now hearing lots of chatter about Q3 2020 being the peak for metals and that we’re starting a new bear market. However, one look at the Silver/Gold ratio suggests differently, given that it’s acting completely different from the last bull market peak. As shown below, the 2011 peak saw the price of gold race to new highs in Q2 and early Q3, while silver was unable to make a new high, sending the Silver/Gold ratio plunging from a reading of 0.30 to 0.22. This significant underperformance in silver is never a good sign, and it suggested that we were likely at the tail end of a bull market, with the ratio making a lower high and a lower low just as gold made its new highs above $1,900/oz.

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