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Wall Street gyrates to muted close as investors weigh jobs data in rate debate

Published 07/08/2022, 07:42 AM
Updated 07/08/2022, 05:57 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 30, 2022.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

By David French

(Reuters) - Wall Street ended little changed on Friday after a volatile session in which investors tried to comprehend how a robust jobs report would influence the U.S. Federal Reserve and its plans to aggressively hike interest rates.

Despite the bumpy nature of the day though, the Nasdaq posted its fifth straight gain - its longest winning streak since the beginning of November - and all three benchmarks finished solidly up for the week shortened by the Independence Day holiday.

The Labor Department's closely awaited data showed nonfarm payrolls rose by 372,000 jobs in June, higher than the estimated rise of 268,000 jobs, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

The report also showed the jobless rate remained near pre-pandemic lows at 3.6% and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%, after gaining 0.4% in May.

After a brutal first half of the year, U.S. stock markets started July on a solid footing as investors took relief from easing commodity prices and the Fed hinting at a more tempered program of rate hikes amid concerns of a recession.

"We think the market has right-sized itself, somewhat, and will continue to adjust around the edges as we see macro data and as we work our way through earnings season," said Mike Loukas, chief executive of TrueMark Investments.

"Now it's a matter of people trying to figure out where the entry point is, and where the bottom is or if we are close to it."

Investors remain nervy though, sifting through each new piece of data and commentary from Fed governors to see how this might influence the U.S. central bank's plans to dramatically shift rates higher.

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This resulted in see-saw trading on Friday, with all three main benchmarks experiencing periods in positive and negative territory.

"The market suspects when you start to see truly strong signs of the Fed relaxing its path of rate increases and leading indicators picking up, we'll probably get a pretty good upward movement in the market, and no one wants to miss that," said Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management.

"So we're going to have this volatility as we have all these false starts along the way."

With the earnings season around the corner, investors will focus on company forecasts as well as key inflation data expected next week to gauge the health of the economy.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, until recently among the central bank's most dovish policymakers, said on Friday he "fully" supports another 75-basis-point rate rise later this month.

Speaking later on Friday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams did not specify if he favors a half point or three-quarter point increase at the Fed's upcoming July meeting, but acknowledged rising interest rates were affecting the economy.

On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 46.4 points, or 0.15%, to 31,338.15, the S&P 500 lost 3.24 points, or 0.08%, to 3,899.38 and the Nasdaq Composite added 13.96 points, or 0.12%, to 11,635.31.

For the week, the Nasdaq gained 4.5%, while the S&P and Dow advanced 1.9% and 0.8%, respectively.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.60 billion shares, compared with the 13.03 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

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The S&P 500 posted two new 52-week highs and 29 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 21 new highs and 52 new lows.

Latest comments

👂🫂
oh look we green. Everything is great, you guys!
market wishfully hopes for 50bp hike, but it is zero chance. people are betting on zero chance.
0% chance of 50bp hike; 93% chance of 75 bp hike; 7% chance of 100 bp hike this month. as approaching to decision time, most likely 100 bp hike.
7% chance is not most likely..
Consensus is already for 8.7% CPI, which means more than all previous months. "Real", ehmm, official numbers have been consistently above consensus, so let's wait for that >9% (even if it is fraudulently "revised" to that number later on). Now, the FOMOC after the next one is only end of September, this means 2 months without the FED doing anything to rates. Will they risk letting a dovish, or hawkish, rate for the period? Bottom's up, 100 bps coming and stonks in exit scam mode. Buy the sucker bear rally if you want, I'm dumping.
hardish landing is most likely. it means hardish stock market crash
I get it all of you millennials and generation Z only think the market goes up. But you’ve never lived in a world where interest rates were higher than zero. Lol all I can say is just get ready
Good luck. 35 years plus in this market there is a massive selloff coming. There’s going to be retakes for the foreseeable years to come. You should on SPY put right here at 3900 to 4000 on the S&P. Because $200-$215 a share times 14 X equals 2700 to 3000 on the S&P. That’s if we’re lucky to do over $200 a share. The E in PE has not come down yet at all. 3000 is where the S&P 500 to me will be a bottom. May be a little lower
The E won't coming down when the gov't protects the rich & corporations. Trump era's $953 billion Paycheck Protection Program did:  "*not well targeted. Only about one-quarter of PPP funds supported jobs that otherwise would have disappeared.  *In addition, the study found that the PPP’s benefits flowed disproportionately to wealthier households rather than to the rank-and-file workers that its funds were intended to reach."  -- www.stlouisfed.org "was-paycheck-protection-"program-effective"
Everything smells like exit scam. Your numbers make sense, thank you for sharing.
Well would ya look at that.  Another rabbit out of the hat "in late trade."  Fraudulent, criminal, flagrantly manipulated JOKE.
Sometimes the rabbit hops up.  Sometimes it burrows down.  But you're always surprised & indignant when the rabbit does its rabbit thing.
I think Mitchell would only be calmed if the rabbit did not move.
I think Mitchell would only be calmed if the rabbit did not move.
cheerup wallstreet👏👏👏 it's good news high employment is good news , more people get jobs to earn money and feed their family after such a long pandemic run. ignore the rate hikes , if you guys don't let equities fall, then recession won't happen
Yup, it's good.  High employment gives the Fed room to raise rates to keep inflation in check.
Good jobs data would mean economy is doing good. So, even if the rate hike is aggressive and inspite of it jobs data is good, it means recession even if it were to happen would be mild. So markets arent reacting to anything. just some profit booking and possible friday exits before weekend since it has risen from 10500 odd levels to 11600 (nasdaq). its gonna reach 12050 and 12600 in coming weeks irrespective of whatever data is shown be it inflation numbers or GDP or rate hikes due for this month, until 12600 is achieved.
The fear is that Fed will increase until the job numbers don't so good.
I wish these writers had a clue. When the market goes down they write its because the fear of inflation. When we have a good employment number and the market is down because of the fear of interest rate increases. When the market is down its because of fear of recession. They dont have a dang clue so to put in confidence in these articals has you scratching your head.
Hot labour market and rising inflation are key check points for further raises, especially when the economy isn't weak just impeded by price factor drivers due to inflation.
Doesn't mean the market won't go up, just feeling for a gauge of inflation tapering without crippling growth due to further rate increases.
Guess someone wants you guys to uy PUTS fake journalism at itonceagain.
Look at the stock market and admit the inflation and recession are illusions. The rising rent, food price and utilitie bills? Forget it!
Slide? If anything the job report showed that the so-called "recession" would happen with max employment! Is that a recession? Buy stocks, buy commo
Imagine that, an intraday "reversal" on FRAUDULENT Friday, where miracles abound.  Only in the US Ponzi Scheme, BIGGEST INVESTMENT JOKE IN THE WORLD.
Hmmm i smell a bull trap
For two weeks in a row, Fridays have risen sharply, and today is Friday again, and everyone is playing as a fool.
Difference this Friday is that it follows many other days of gains
Do you know why the indices tumble? It's just because the Wall Street wants to take money from your pocket.
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