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Day Ahead: Top 3 Things to Watch

Published 02/28/2018, 04:02 PM
Updated 02/28/2018, 04:02 PM
© Reuters.

© Reuters.

Investing.com – Here’s a preview of the top 3 things that could rock markets tomorrow

1. The Perfect Storm Coming Gold's Way?

A raft of market-moving data which includes a key inflation report is set to get the first day of March underway Thursday, while Fed chair Jerome Powell's appearance will likely dominate direction as was the case Tuesday.

Market participants are likely to securitize Powell’s testimony before a Senate Panel Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET as his seemingly hawkish comments Tuesday on both inflation and economic growth sent bond yields and the dollar soaring, leaving gold nursing sizable losses.

Powell’s testimony will be sandwiched between top-tier economic data on inflation, labor, manufacturing and consumer spending.

The Core Price Consumer Expenditure (PCE) Index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – is expected to remain unchanged at 1.5% in January year-on-year. This will garner added attention amid growing expectations for four rate hikes this year.

Economist forecast the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index to show a reading of 59 for February, broadly in line with the reading seen January.

The Labor department releases its weekly count of the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the week ended Feb 23.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, is expected to have risen 0.2% last month compared to a 0.4% jump in December.

The Federal Reserve’s beige book, a report that includes anecdotal evidence on the health of the US economy from 12 regions will also be closely watched for any subtle change in commentary on inflation following hawkish language seen in the Fed’s January meeting minutes.

2. Manufacturing, Housing To Steady Sterling?

Economists forecast Nationwide HPI data to show house prices rose 0.2% in February, well below the 0.6% growth seen in the prior month, while house prices growth on an annual basis is expected to fall to 2.6%.

The UK manufacturing PMI for February is expected to have eased to 55.1 from 55.3 in the previous month.

The update on manufacturing and housing comes at a time when Brexit-related uncertainty continues to pressure sterling after UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, rejected the EU’s proposal of a “common regulatory area” across Ireland if other solutions to avoid a hard border fail.

Brexit commentary is expected to dominate moves in sterling throughout the week in the run up to May’s speech Friday, when the UK Prime Minister is expected to outline a plan for a new post-Brexit relationship with the EU.

GBP/USD fell 1.02% to $1.3767.

3. Yen Watch: Japan Inflation In Focus

Japan’s core consumer-price index is expected to show a 0.8% rise in January from a year earlier, down from the 0.9% increase seen in December.

Any sign of a wobble in inflation could scale back investor expectations that the Bank of Japan is nearing the end of its ultra-loose monetary policy measures after central bank’s recent moves to trim its long-term bond purchases.

USD/JPY fell 0.61% to Y106.69. Yet dollar strength against the yen is expected to prevail, according to Action Economics.

“Given the freshened US rate outlook following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments on Tuesday, and ongoing hints from the Bank of Japan that stimulus will remain in vogue for the foreseeable future, USD-JPY dip buying may remain in favor,” Action Economics said.

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