Investing.com -- Citi analysts do not anticipate outsized equity returns for Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) from 2025 to 2027, maintaining a Neutral rating on the stock in a note to clients Friday.
Netflix shares surged over 90% in 2024, driven by record fourth-quarter net subscriber additions.
However, Citi believes that going forward, revenue growth will become the key metric for investors as Netflix will no longer disclose subscriber counts or ARM (average revenue per member).
The analysts stated, “Given Netflix will no longer disclose subs or ARM, we believe investors will shift to revenue growth as the primary KPI.”
Citi reviewed Street revenue growth estimates and found them “reasonable for the next few years.”
While the firm acknowledges that consensus subscriber forecasts “may be too bullish,” it also noted that ad revenue expectations appear too bearish.
Other revenue drivers, including U.S. price hikes, foreign exchange effects, and non-U.S. price increases, were described as “conservative” in the current 2025 consensus.
The analysts concluded that Netflix is likely to meet revenue expectations, but not in the way the market expects.
“We suspect Netflix will hit consensus revenues in a different way than the Street is expecting (i.e. fewer subs, but better revenue per sub),” Citi wrote.
While updating their estimates following Netflix’s fourth-quarter results, Citi raised its price target from $920 to $1,020, based on a 32x multiple of 2026 estimated EPS. Despite this increase, the firm reiterated its Neutral rating, stating, “Barring significantly lower costs, we don’t expect outsized equity returns in ‘25 through ‘27.”