Investing.com -- The Bank of England is expected to keep interest rates steady on Thursday and maintain its cautious approach to future adjustments, as it navigates the economic uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and mixed signals from Britain’s economy, Reuters reported on Monday.
As per a poll conducted by Reuters last week, all 61 surveyed economists anticipated that the BoE would leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5%.
The next reduction is projected to take place in May, with additional cuts expected in August and November.
Since the BoE’s most recent rate cut on February 6, there has been little new data on the UK economy.
However, Trump’s unpredictable tariff announcements targeting U.S. allies have unsettled global financial markets, raising concerns over inflationary pressures worldwide.
Over the past two weeks, U.S. stock markets have suffered significant losses, erasing more than $5 trillion in value due to fears that Trump’s trade policies could push the U.S. economy into recession, the report said.
Conversely, Germany’s ruling political parties unveiled a 500-billion-euro infrastructure and defense investment plan, which provided a boost to manufacturers’ stock values.
Unlike the European Central Bank, which implemented its sixth interest rate cut since June earlier this month, the BoE has taken a more measured approach, making its first cut last August.
Economic data released last week indicated an unexpected contraction in Britain’s economy in January.
At the same time, public expectations for both near-term and long-term inflation have risen. The Monetary Policy Committee will have early access to labour market figures due on the morning of the interest rate decision, the report said.
The Reuters poll suggests that the MPC is likely to vote 7-2 in favour of holding rates steady. In February, seven members backed a quarter-point cut, while two advocated for a larger half-point reduction.
Investors will be closely monitoring any shifts in stance among MPC members, particularly given differing levels of concern over persistent inflation.
The MPC is expected to reassess the economic outlook at its May meeting, when it will also have more clarity on any fiscal measures introduced by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves on March 26.
Her ability to uphold current fiscal rules remains uncertain due to sluggish growth and rising borrowing costs, the report added.
Inflation forecasts have been revised upward in the latest Reuters poll, with economists now expecting an average rate of 3.0% for the year, up from 2.8% in the previous survey.
While the unemployment rate is projected to remain stable, 15 out of 16 respondents indicated that the risks were skewed toward higher-than-expected joblessness, the report said.