By Gina Lee
Investing.com – Asia Pacific stocks were mostly up on Wednesday morning, with investors digesting the probability of a de-escalation in the war in Ukraine and oil pared declines.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 1.27% by 10:29 PM ET (2:29 AM GMT). South Korea’s KOSPI 50 was up 0.27% and in Australia, the ASX 200 rose 0.8%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.85%. China’s Shanghai Composite gained 0.63% while the Shenzhen Component jumped 1.41%.
Oil clawed back some of its losses in early Asian trading, with investors remaining cautious about the war coming to an end. Russia said it will sharply reduce military activity near the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, and chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky said the country would take steps to “de-escalate” the conflict.
However, Tuesday’s talks between Ukraine and Russia failed to reach an agreement on a cease-fire, with the Pentagon warning that Kyiv remains under threat. With no end in sight to the war in Ukraine triggered by the Russian invasion on Feb. 24, analysts are casting doubt on Russian intentions.
Hopes that Ukraine and Russia could make progress in peace talks had seen oil prices and inflation expectations come down, giving bonds a respite from their recent drubbing. Long-end yields slid, which led to a brief inversion in the two- to 10-year curve.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve’s inversion sparked a debate over the risks of a growth downturn as central banks begin to tighten their monetary policies. They include the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to continue hiking interest rates throughout 2022.
“We knew that we were late-cycle and typically the yield curve inverts, and it takes anywhere from 18 to 24 months to actually move into a recession,” Pacific Investment Management Co. portfolio manager Erin Browne told Bloomberg.
“There are reasons to believe this time around that yield curve inversion may not be as good an indicator as it has been in the past, particularly given the enormous amount of quantitative easing undertaken by global central banks,” she added.
Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he expects a series of “deliberate, methodical” rate increases in 2022, but said he is open to a half-point move in May if near-term data shows more inflation. Harker’s colleagues, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and New York Fed President John Williams will speak on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.
In the latest U.S. data, the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence Index was at 107.2 in March 2022, while JOLTs job openings totaled 11.266 million. Further data, including the GDP and the latest jobs report, including non-farm payrolls, will be released later in the day and on Friday respectively.
In Asia Pacific, China will release its manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) on Thursday, followed by the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Friday.