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On Tuesday, ARK Investment Management LLC shared its Big Ideas 2025 report, outlining a future where the robotics industry is poised to transform various sectors and significantly boost productivity. The report highlights the potential for specialized robots, such as household appliances, to dramatically reduce the time required for everyday tasks.
The report identifies a substantial global revenue opportunity, estimating that generalizable robotics could generate over $26 trillion, with approximately $13 trillion each in household and manufacturing robotics. ARK emphasizes the versatility of humanoid robots, which are expected to become increasingly common worldwide due to their adaptability in environments designed for humans.
As costs decrease and productivity gains from humanoid robots rise, ARK anticipates a surge in adoption. They equate a 100% productivity increase from these robots to the work of a human over ten years. In the context of a restaurant, while a dishwashing machine represents only one of many tasks, the automation of household chores like dishwashing and cleaning could represent a $250 billion revenue opportunity in the U.S. alone.
Small businesses, according to ARK, stand to gain disproportionately from humanoid robots. Larger firms have benefited from specialized automation, allowing them to scale and pay higher wages. However, small firms have numerous tasks that could be automated but currently are not, making them ideal candidates for generalizable automation solutions such as humanoid robots.
The report also touches on the broader economic impact of automation, suggesting that turning non-market activities into revenue-generating ones could significantly contribute to GDP. It cites that if U.S. consumers valued their unpaid labor, such as food preparation and cleanup, at half their hourly wages, it could add approximately $1 trillion to GDP annually.
Finally, ARK addresses the 3D printing industry, forecasting a potential annual growth rate of around 40% to $180 billion by 2030. The industry saw notable consolidation in 2024, with acquisitions such as Nano Dimension (NASDAQ:NNDM)'s purchase of Desktop Metal and Markforged. The report suggests that further consolidation could occur if more manufacturers internalize 3D printing technology, similar to General Electric (NYSE:GE)'s strategy. It also notes that industries poised for rapid scaling, like drone manufacturing and nuclear power, could leverage 3D printing to expedite their market entry.
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