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AMC: Is Meme Rally Over, or Just Beginning?

Published 10/01/2021, 10:48 AM
Updated 10/01/2021, 02:31 PM
© Reuters.  AMC: Is Meme Rally Over, or Just Beginning?

© Reuters. AMC: Is Meme Rally Over, or Just Beginning?

AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) stock has been on a number of incredible runs this year. Indeed, this meme stock has surged more than once, going on a rally to the $20 level earlier this year, before falling back to earth.

More recently, AMC stock surged to as high as $72.62 per share in June, a significant jump over mid-May levels, which saw this stock trade at sub-$10 per share.

These momentum-driven moves have mainly been driving by incredible options activity among retail investors betting on continued short squeezes with this stock. While some may argue as to whether or not AMC has actually squeezed in the fact, due to the reality that on each squeeze attempt short positions actually grew, this is a stock that has remained on the radar for so many investors this year because of this reason alone.

Will this rally continue? Or has AMC stock finally been pushed aside in favor of other, smaller cap short squeeze plays?

I remain bearish on AMC stock currently, as I believe this stock's valuation has become completely detached from its fundamentals. That being said, let's dive into what the experts think on this stock. (See AMC Entertainment stock charts on TipRanks)

What’s Behind Recent Surges in AMC Stock?

AMC’s violently moving stock price has been driven by a couple of key factors.

First, there is a fundamental argument to be made about AMC's fundamentals improving. Recent box-office blowouts including Shang-Chi are renewing the fervor around cinema stocks.

Given the pent-up demand for entertainment, AMC stock has received a nice shot in the arm from consumers.

Of course, rising case counts and prevalence of COVID-19 variants could derail this thesis in the near term. However, those thinking long term have to like the potential for a meaningful rally in AMC's revenue, and potentially gross profit.

That said, it's important to note that despite very successful theater releases of late, AMC has continued to bleed cash. This is a company that's nowhere near full capacity across its portfolio of locations, and getting to full capacity may take some time.

The second important catalyst for AMC stock of late has been capital inflows into various meme stocks. AMC is perhaps the leading meme stock right now, taking top spot in the minds of many retail investors from GameStop (NYSE:GME) this summer.

Should considerable retail investor interest remain with AMC stock, anything's possible.

Financials Better, But Need Improvement

Although AMC stock has shown the potential to shoot higher in parabolic fashion, the company financials appear to remain in a dangerously precarious position. This company's most recent quarterly reports reveal AMC’s earnings surpassed analyst estimates, while losses were lower than expected. That being said, the company remains highly burdened with debt. 

The movie theater industry was one of the worst affected sectors during the pandemic. Indeed, AMC was almost on the verge of bankruptcy towards the end of 2020. Various stock issuances during previous meme rallies have helped to steady the ship in this regard. However, the dilution these offerings have had on existing shareholders makes the investment thesis a difficult one to grasp for investors looking to put new capital into AMC stock.

Wall Street’s Take

As per TipRanks' analyst rating consensus, AMC Entertainment is a Hold. Out of four analyst ratings, there are three Hold recommendations and one Sell recommendation.

The average AMC Entertainment price target is $11.75. Analyst price targets range from a low of $7.50 per share, to a high of $16 per share.

Bottom Line

AMC’s ticket sales are still quite below pre-pandemic levels. While many expect these numbers to improve, AMC stock is certainly a high-risk, high-reward bet for investors.

Those with a long-term investment time horizon, and concerns about capital preservation may want to sit on the sidelines with this meme stock.

Of course, aggressive investors looking to scalp near-term gains may give this stock a shot. After all, this volatility is a trader's best friend.

Disclosure: At the time of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have a position in any of the securities mentioned in this article

Disclaimer: The information contained in this article represents the views and opinion of the writer only, and not the views or opinion of TipRanks or its affiliates, and should be considered for informational purposes only. TipRanks makes no warranties about the completeness, accuracy or reliability of such information. Nothing in this article should be taken as a recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell securities. Nothing in the article constitutes legal, professional, investment and/or financial advice and/or takes into account the specific needs and/or requirements of an individual, nor does any information in the article constitute a comprehensive or complete statement of the matters or subject discussed therein. TipRanks and its affiliates disclaim all liability or responsibility with respect to the content of the article, and any action taken upon the information in the article is at your own and sole risk. The link to this article does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by TipRanks or its affiliates. Past performance is not indicative of future results, prices or performance.

Latest comments

AMC is for the MOASS play. This is not a fundamental play as all apes know already. Buying the stock and willing to lose all but don't put and buy all the farm on this play.
just beginning guys!!!
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