Breaking News
Get Actionable Insights with InvestingPro+: Start 7 Day FREE Trial Register here
Investing Pro 0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

Airbus shaves 20-year demand forecast, sees faster replacements

Stock MarketsNov 13, 2021 03:00PM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A logo of Airbus is seen at the entrance of its factory in Blagnac near Toulouse, France, July 2, 2020. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier/File Photo

By Tim Hepher and Alexander Cornwell

DUBAI (Reuters) -Airbus shaved its forecast for total commercial airplane demand by 0.5% compared with pre-pandemic projections on Saturday, offset by a brighter outlook for freighters as jetmakers fight for inaugural sales of new cargo planes.

Airbus updated the widely watched forecast on the eve of the Dubai Airshow, where a battered aviation industry is reeling from the loss of two years' growth to COVID-19, while outlining its latest environmental plans amid growing climate pressure.

Airbus said it expected a market total of 39,020 jetliner deliveries in the next 20 years, fractionally lower than the 39,213 it predicted two years ago in its last rolling forecast.

The estimate for small planes like the best-selling A320 was essentially flat at 29,690 units, but the outlook for long-haul jets that traditionally dominate the region fell 3.1%.

The view echoes that of Boeing (NYSE:BA) which in September cut its 20-year delivery forecast by 1% compared to 2019. That tempered greater pessimism seen from Boeing as the crisis peaked in 2020.

Airbus issued slightly weaker forecasts for medium jets - a key battleground that includes its longest-range narrrow-body jet, the A321XLR. Its sales have been causing a headache for Boeing at the top end of its recently troubled 737 MAX range.

After two years of COVID-related travel restrictions, Airbus slashed its forecast for average annual growth in passenger traffic over 20 years to 3.9% from 4.3% in pre-pandemic 2019.

Traffic and airline profits set the pace for plane orders.

"We have lost effectively two years of traffic growth because of the pandemic," Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer said.

However, Airbus raised its 20-year delivery forecast for freighters by 2.9% to 880 units and predicted an order soon for a new A350 freighter. Boeing said it is in advanced discussions with potential buyers for its new 777X freighter.

Airbus said a rising share of total airplane deliveries would be to replace jets already in the market rather than to facilitate the recently curbed growth plans of many airlines.

That emphasis reflects expectations that airlines will retire less efficient jets earlier following COVID-19, but also addresses a sensitive point for the industry as some environmental groups target what they see as over-expansion.

Airbus said 39% of deliveries would replace older planes with higher emissions, compared with 36% in an earlier forecast.

Faster retirements worry some suppliers and lessors who fear the economically useful life of jets will fall, forcing them to miss out on service revenues or push up depreciation costs.

Scherer dismissed suppliers' criticism of Airbus' plans to raise output in coming years, saying this would not flood the market but would instead modernise fleets and curb emissions.

Airbus shaves 20-year demand forecast, sees faster replacements
 

Related Articles

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email