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U.S. election betting odds tighten but still favour Trump over Biden

Published 11/03/2020, 10:25 PM
Updated 11/04/2020, 01:10 AM
© Reuters. U.S. President Trump visits presidential campaign headquarters on Election Day in Arlington, Virginia

By Divya Chowdhury

(Reuters) - Betting market odds on the U.S. presidential election have begun to tighten once again after flipping in favour of Republican President Donald Trump over Democratic candidate Joe Biden, according to data from three aggregators.

Britain-based Smarkets exchange is giving Trump 55% odds of winning, up from 39% when polls opened. The odds on Trump had risen to 80% at one point.

Biden's win odds on Smarkets have fallen to 45% from 61% earlier.

The flip "has mainly been driven by Trump seemingly holding the key swing state of Florida as a result of a very strong showing for him in the Miami-Dade county with a large Cuban population," said Patrick Flynn, political analyst at Smarkets.

Flynn said early and election-day votes were highly split and the "outcome of this election is going to come down to the types of votes that remain to be counted in some of the key states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Arizona."

Bettors on British betting exchange Betfair were giving Trump a 75% chance of winning a second term in the White House at 2200 Eastern time (0300 GMT), up from 39% when polls opened on Tuesday morning. Biden's odds of a win on Betfair have fallen to 25% from 61% earlier.

"Trump has overtaken Biden significantly and is now in pole position, suggesting it could be a very nervous night ahead for Biden," Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom said.

Meanwhile, New Zealand-based predictions market PredictIt had Trump leading Biden at 62 cents-to-37 cents, from being 61 cents-to-44 cents in favour of the Democratic candidate on Nov. 2.

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PredictIt's website was hit by an outage earlier. It posted on Twitter that it was working to "bring service back as soon as possible," without saying exactly why it had gone down.

Latest comments

Looks like Trump has it
pa will count as many votes as it takes to win for the dems. 700,000 vote lead will melt
Trump sweeps, President, House and Senate
House is already Dem
Biden won, game over
Send Biden to China if Trump wins
No send to india plz
just like 2016, Trump is winning. just wonder how much fraud can the left pull this time. Now it is obvious the mainstream media is crooked liars
So reuters? 3 months lying with polls? Now trump magically ahead everywhere? What is next? Massive fraud?
how do the polls show biden leading in pennsylvania by 5 to 10% for weeks ahead of the election and now suddenly trump is up by 15% ???
goes up or down for s&p500 if Trump win?
Up.He is incubent
It is getting scary, Democrats played some dirty games this time. Look at the results only to show Biden as winner are comming really fast!!!!!!!
What dirty tricks? Republicans have been removing ballot boxes in Texas, trying to use the courts to make voting harder in other states, and generally trying to suppress the vote.
Trump will win comfortably
Why is main stream media so out of touch with the American people?
Trump will win comfortably no dought
Crucial Midwestern states of PA, MI, WI all goes to Donald J. Trump
florida is usually the tie breaker.
Trump wins
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