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UPDATE 2-Romania cuts rates to record low, sees CPI falling

Published 03/29/2010, 06:44 AM
Updated 03/29/2010, 04:48 AM

* Cuts by 50 basis points to 6.5 percent

* Rates remain highest in EU due to persistent inflation

* Inflation seen falling further, but uncertainty persists

* Leu little changed by decision

* Hungary expected to cut by 25 bps later on Monday

(Adds details from c.bank statement, analyst comment)

By Luiza Ilie and Marius Zaharia

BUCHAREST, March 29 (Reuters) - Romania's central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to a record low of 6.5 percent on Monday, saying it saw inflation falling further, while uncertainties about the global economy persisted. The decision, which the bank called "prudent", was in line with forecasts and aimed to revive lending and help the ailing economy recover after a painful contraction of 7.1 percent last year.

Most of Europe's emerging eastern economies are still struggling to recover from recession and analysts expect Hungary to cut rates by a further 25 basis points later on Monday, while Poland and the Czech Republic are seen delaying their tightening cycles.

Recent data show Romania's economy -- the subject of an IMF bailout during the financial crisis -- might still be in recession in the first quarter and inflation resumed its fall in February, offering more room to ease monetary policy.

Interest rates have now dropped 375 basis points over the past 12 months, but remain the highest in the European Union because the bank started easing rates later than other countries in the region due to persistent inflation and political risk.

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"I can easily see another 100 basis points reduction from here .. in the near term," said Raffaella Tenconi, chief economist at Wood&Co in Prague.

"The inflation outlook is still pretty good, it is not ultra-favourable as it has been once, but it seems that the central bank does want to support the recovery."

HIGH RATES

Some analysts see a slowdown in rates easing starting with the next meeting in May, as inflationary pressures from food, fuel and government-regulated prices could put the 2.5-4.5 percent target at risk.

"(Rate cuts) will continue, but timing is unclear," said Ionut Dumitru, chief economist at Raiffeisen Bank in Bucharest.

"We maintain our forecast of 6.25 percent for the end of the year and anyway they will not go beyond 6 percent, because of the inflation outlook."

The central bank also warned about uncertainties in government-administered and other prices, capital flows and a global economic recovery.

The bank also noted a "significant" improvement in banking sector liquidity and a slightly slower decline in private consumption and rising exports.

The leu was little changed by the decision, trading at 4.0630 per euro at 1009 GMT. (Additional reporting by Sam Cage, editing by Patrick Graham)

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