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Turkish lira falls on central bank shake-up, dollar and yen advance

Published 03/21/2021, 08:20 PM
Updated 03/22/2021, 02:05 AM
© Reuters. A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul

By Stanley White

TOKYO (Reuters) - The Turkish lira slumped toward a record low versus the dollar after President Tayyip Erdogan stunned investors over the weekend by replacing the hawkish central bank governor with a critic of high interest rates.

The yen rose against the euro and the antipodean currencies on speculation that Japanese investors who have been buying the lira recently for its high rates will cut losses and close out their positions.

Worries that events in Turkey will cause disruptions in other financial markets also supported the dollar because of its status as a safe-harbour currency.

"Other emerging market countries are not in the same position as Turkey, but there still could be some contagion," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"There are concerns that people will start taking profits in other markets. This looks like a time to re-think your investment strategy, because the rotation into higher-yielding emerging market currencies will be put on hold."

The Turkish lira stood at 8.0500 per dollar, down 10% from its close on Friday.

At one point the lira fell by as much as 14.9% to 8.4850, which is close to a record low of 8.5800.

Analysts said they are braced for bigger moves as more investors enter markets later in the day.

The yen edged up against the euro, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, boosted by expectations that Japanese retail investors who lost money on the lira will unwind other popular cross yen trades.

The dollar eased slightly to 108.82 yen but steadied against the British pound at $1.3851.

The euro fell slightly to $1.1892.

Erdogan fired the central bank governor only two days after a sharp rate increase that was meant to head off inflation of nearly 16% and support the lira.

The new central bank governor will most likely lead to a reversal of the hawkish and orthodox steps taken to battle inflation, which could lead to prolonged market volatility, analysts said.

"After regaining investor confidence with a series of aggressive rate hikes, Turkey has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory," analysts at Brown, Brothers and Harriman wrote in memo.

Worries that turmoil would spread to other emerging markets helped the dollar rise against the Thai baht, the Indonesian rupiah, and the Philippine peso.

The onshore yuan held steady at 6.5085 against the greenback after China kept its benchmark lending rate for corporate and household loans unchanged for an 11th straight month.

A decline in risk appetite weighed on the Australian dollar, which fell to $0.7724. The New Zealand dollar also fell slightly to $0.7155.

Further declines in the Aussie and the kiwi are likely to be limited because both currencies will still benefit from rising commodity prices and an acceleration in global trade, Mizuho's Yamamoto said.

========================================================

Currency bid prices at 0512 GMT

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Euro/Dollar

$1.1892 $1.1906 -0.11% -2.67% +1.1900 +1.1870

Dollar/Yen

108.8200 108.8650 -0.14% +5.25% +108.9500 +108.7050

Euro/Yen

129.41 129.58 -0.13% +1.96% +129.6000 +129.0500

Dollar/Swiss

0.9294 0.9290 +0.04% +5.05% +0.9311 +0.9260

Sterling/Dollar

1.3851 1.3859 -0.04% +1.40% +1.3855 +1.3819

Dollar/Canadian

1.2500 1.2500 -0.01% -1.85% +1.2534 +1.2498

Aussie/Dollar

0.7724 0.7745 -0.24% +0.44% +0.7734 +0.7689

NZ

Dollar/Dollar 0.7155 0.7168 -0.13% -0.31% +0.7162 +0.7136

All spots

Tokyo spots

Europe spots

Volatilities

© Reuters. A merchant counts Turkish lira banknotes at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul

Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ

Latest comments

Lira is so insignificant to the total world GDP , you tell me its weakening can push up USD, are you kidding? This is news manipulation, anti wisdom , treating the public like pig !
TRY was appreciating too much, he needed to weaken it. Same as all other EM's, can no longer sustain the appreciation of their currencies. It's happening everywhere in EM's, the race to the FX bottom. FED deliberately trying the weaken USD causing EM's to fly to unsustainable highs - it smashes their exports.
Erdogan has turned Turkey into a failed economic dictatorship.
Turkeys vote for XMAS.
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