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Hedge Funds Throw Heft Behind 2019’s Best-Performing Currency

Published 08/19/2019, 05:15 PM
Updated 08/19/2019, 11:02 PM
© Reuters.  Hedge Funds Throw Heft Behind 2019’s Best-Performing Currency

© Reuters. Hedge Funds Throw Heft Behind 2019’s Best-Performing Currency

(Bloomberg) -- The yen’s dominant 2019 rally has finally caught the attention of hedge-fund managers.

Speculators haven’t been this bullish on the yen since November 2016, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Before early this month, the group had been short Japan’s currency for more than a year, but they’ve gradually brightened on its prospects as U.S.-China trade tensions have fueled concern about global economic growth.

The yen has gained against all of its Group-of-10 peers this year, and given the “shaky” risk outlook, it should keep climbing, according to Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C).

“The yen by far and away is the best safe-haven currency in the G-10, despite where risk-off originates,” said Calvin Tse, the bank’s head of North American G-10 currency strategy. “In the current environment, we continue to believe that risks to the yen are heavily skewed towards strength.”

The yen has risen almost 3% against the dollar in 2019, more than any other G-10 currency. It appreciated to 105.05 per dollar last week, close to its strongest level of 2019, as the bond market sent an alarm signal on the global economy.

A Bank of Japan that is less inclined than other central banks to aggressively add stimulus in the face of slowing growth would also benefit the yen, according to Credit Suisse’s Shahab Jalinoos.

Credit Suisse (SIX:CSGN) expects the dollar-yen pair to fall to 100 over the next 12 months, from 106.60 currently. It hasn’t been that low since 2016.

“The BOJ may prove more conservative in terms of what it’s willing to do going forward than some other major central banks,” said Jalinoos, global head of foreign-exchange trading strategy. “The BOJ hasn’t rushed to get ahead of the curve in terms of messaging.”

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