Bank of America (BofA) issued a report highlighting an improved growth prospect for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies, driven by new sources of growth that are likely to counterbalance previous concerns about tariffs and auto sector weakness. BofA analysts pointed to the significant fiscal stimulus in Germany and increased defense spending in Europe as key factors that will benefit the CEE region.
The report suggests that the CEE region’s close economic ties with Germany, indicated by a high GDP beta of 0.8-1.0, positions it to gain from Germany’s increased infrastructure spending. Analysts estimate a potential upside of 1-1.5 percentage points to German growth by 2027, which could translate to about a 1 percentage point pass-through to CEE GDP in the medium term.
BofA also noted that the European Defence Industrial Strategy, which aims to bolster intra-EU trade and supply chains for the defense industry, could lead to even stronger GDP spillover for CEE countries. Poland and Czechia, in particular, are expected to benefit significantly due to their manufacturing capabilities and focus on defense.
In terms of fiscal risks, the report maintains that they are contained within the CEE region, with all countries already meeting or exceeding the 2% of GDP NATO target for defense spending. Although election cycles may introduce additional spending needs, with Hungary potentially being more vulnerable, the overall fiscal outlook remains stable.
Central banks in the region are expected to remain hawkish, balancing the downside risk to inflation from lower energy prices and stronger currencies against the backdrop of better growth prospects.
BofA predicts that the Czech National Bank (CNB) may implement at most two more rate cuts, bringing the rate down to 3.25% by 2026. The year-end 2025 rate forecasts for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) remain unchanged at 5.25% and 6.50%, respectively.
The report concludes with a strategy that favors stronger CEE currencies, particularly the Czech koruna (CZK) and the Polish złoty (PLN), which stand to benefit from the German infrastructure boom and European defense production.
While CEE currencies are expected to strengthen against both the U.S. dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR), BofA analysts caution that appreciation against the EUR may be limited in the short term due to overvaluation concerns, especially for the PLN.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.