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Forex - Weekly Outlook: Jul 29 - Aug 2

ForexJul 28, 2019 06:57AM ET
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© Reuters. - This week investors will be focusing their attention on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision, where policymakers are widely expected to deliver their first rate cut in more than a decade amid concerns over slowing growth and subdued inflation.

Friday’s U.S. job report for July will also be closely watched to confirm whether a rate move was necessary as investors try to gauge the monetary policy outlook for the rest of the year.

Investors will also be awaiting developments on the trade front as talks between the U.S. and China resume. Central bank meetings in the U.K. and Japan will also help drive market sentiment in the coming week.

The U.S. dollar hit two-month highs on Friday as better-than-forecast U.S. growth data didn’t alter expectations for an impending Fed rate cut amid risk from trade conflicts and softening global demand.

Data showed U.S. GDP grew at a 2.1% annualized rate in the second quarter, weaker than the 3.1% pace in the first quarter but stronger than the 1.8% forecast by economists.

“You continue to see this theme that the U.S. is growing well, better than most G7 economies, consistent with dollar strength that we’re seeing on the back of this,” said Erik Nelson, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in New York.

“I don’t think it changes all that much for the Fed next week. We still expect a 25 basis-point cut at the meeting,” he added.

In late U.S. trading, the U.S. dollar index was up 0.2% at 97.72, after earlier hitting its highest level since late May at 97.83. It gained 0.9% on the week following a rise of about 0.4% the week before.

The greenback received an additional boost after White House adviser Larry Kudlow said the U.S. has ruled out intervention in currency markets to counter other nations from weakening their own currencies to help their exporters.

In other currencies, the euro was down 0.16% at 1.1125, recovering from a two-month low of 1.1112 after the European Central Bank decision on Thursday. For the week, the single currency fell 0.8%.

After the ECB session, President Mario Draghi indicated the bank was prepared to cut rates at its next meeting, in September, and consider other options for easing.

Sterling shed 0.6% to 1.2377, after European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told Britain’s new prime minister, Boris Johnson, that an agreement reached by his predecessor Theresa May was the best and the only Brexit deal.

Ahead of the coming week, has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, July 30

Japan Bank of Japan rate decision

Germany Prelim CPI

U.S. Core PCE Price Index

U.S. Personal Spending

U.S. CB Consumer Confidence

U.S. Pending Home Sales

Wednesday, July 31

China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs

Euro zone Premin flash GDP

Euro zone CPI flash estimate

U.S. ADP) nonfarm payrolls

U.S. Chicago PMI

U.S. Federal Reserve rate decision

Thursday, August 1

China Caixin manufacturing PMI

U.K. Bank of England rate decision

U.S. Initial jobless claims

U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

Friday, August 2

U.S. Trade balance

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

--Reuters contributed to this report

Forex - Weekly Outlook: Jul 29 - Aug 2

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Comments (1)
Sanjeev Hutheram
Sanjeev Hutheram Jul 28, 2019 9:17PM ET
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I think that Powell will act strategically against EU and upcoming BOJ decision.A drastic cut does not guarantee success for the US.If there is any easing from the Fed they will want to see certain return on the decision therefore very selective as to where the cheap money goes.
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