Forex - Weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

Euro ends month broadly lower after ECB flags possible easing next month

Investing.com - The euro fell to one-month lows against the dollar on Friday, extending steep losses from the previous session after the European Central Bank indicated that it could ease monetary policy as soon as next month.

EUR/USD ended Friday’s session at 1.3756, the weakest level since April 8, down 0.60% on the day. For the week, the pair was off 0.85%.

The euro fell from two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said the banks is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June. The comments came after the ECB left rates on hold, as expected.

Draghi also said the strength of the euro was “a serious concern” and added that the bank would be closely monitoring exchange rate developments.

The single currency came under additional pressure after data on Friday showed that German exports fell 1.8% from a month earlier in March and the country posted a smaller-than-forecast trade surplus.

The euro dropped to two-month lows against the yen, with EUR/JPY at 140.09 late Friday, the weakest since March 4. The pair ended the week down 1.15%.

Elsewhere Friday, the dollar gained ground against the yen and the Swiss franc on Friday. USD/JPY was at 101.85 late Friday, holding above the three-week trough of 101.42 reached on Tuesday. For the week, the pair was down 0.27%.

USD/CHF settled at a one-month high of 0.8862, 0.62% higher for the day and extending the week’s gains to 0.95%.

Sterling was also lower against the dollar, with GBP/USD down 0.48% to 1.6849 at the close. Earlier in the week, the pair touched highs of 1.6994, the most since August 2009 on the back of expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates ahead of other central banks.

The Canadian dollar fell back from a four-month high against the U.S. dollar on Friday, following an unexpectedly weak domestic jobs report. Statistics Canada reported that the economy shed 28,900 jobs in April, confounding expectations for jobs growth of 12,000.

USD/CAD rose 0.62% to 1.0897 at the close, after falling as low as 1.0813 in the previous session.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to the BoE’s quarterly inflation report for further indications of the expected course of monetary policy. The euro zone and Japan are to release preliminary data on first quarter economic growth, while the U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

Japan is to release data on its current account. Australia is to publish private sector data on business confidence.

In Europe, Switzerland is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

Australia is to produce data on house price inflation and home loans, while the government is to release its annual budget report.

China is to release data on industrial production and fixed asset investment.

The U.K. is to release private sector data on retail sales.

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to publish its bi-annual financial stability report. Governor Graeme Wheeler is to hold a press conference to discuss the report. Meanwhile New Zealand is to release data on retail sales.

The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate and average earnings. The BoE is to publish its quarterly inflation report, and Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference to discuss the report.

The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.

The euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

Japan is to publish preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The nation is also to release a report on tertiary industry activity.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

New Zealand is to release its annual budget statement, as well as private sector data on manufacturing activity.

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on first quarter GDP, as well as revised data on consumer inflation.

Switzerland is to publish data on producer price inflation.

Canada is to release a report on manufacturing sales.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

Canada is to publish data on foreign securities purchases.

The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.