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Forex - Weekly outlook: December 5 - 9

ForexDec 04, 2016 07:10AM ET
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© Reuters. Dollar index ends week lower after mixed U.S. nonfarm payrolls report

Investing.com - The dollar slid against a basket of the major currencies on Friday after data showing that while the U.S. economy added more jobs than forecast last month wage growth declined.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.27% to 100.75 late Friday.

For the week, the index was down 0.68%, its first weekly decline in four weeks.

The Labor Department said the U.S. economy added 178,000 jobs in November from the prior month, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.6%, its lowest level in nine years.

Economists had forecast nonfarm payrolls rising by 175,000 last month and the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.9%.

However, the report also showed that average hourly earnings fell 0.1% from October, while the annual rate of wage growth slowed to 2.5% from 2.8% in October.

The report underlined the Federal Reserve’s case for raising U.S. interest rates at its upcoming meeting on December 13-14, but the weak wage data clouded the outlook for further rate hikes in 2017.

Investors are currently pricing in a 100% chance of a rate hike this month, according to federal funds futures tracked Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Investors see a 93.9% chance that the Fed follows a December rate increase by tightening policy at its next meeting in February

Expectations of higher rates tend to boost the dollar, as higher borrowing costs make the currency more attractive to yield seeking investors.

The dollar weakened against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.52% at 113.51, paring the week’s gains to 0.77%.

The euro was flat, with EUR/USD at 1.0663 late Friday.

The single currency remained under pressure amid concerns over the health of Italy’s banking system ahead of Sunday’s constitutional referendum, which could see the government resign.

Sterling rose more than 1% against the dollar and the euro, building on the previous session’s strong gains as fears over the prospects of a ‘hard-Brexit’ eased.

GBP/USD was up 1.02% at 1.2720 late Friday, while EUR/GBP dropped 1.02% to 0.8381.

In the week ahead, investors will be closely watching the results of Italy’s referendum vote, which could further destabilize the euro area.

Market watchers will also be turning their attention to Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting and awaiting U.S. data on non-manufacturing activity and consumer confidence going into the holiday period.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, December 5

The U.K. is to release data on service sector activity.

The Institute for Supply Management is to release its non-manufacturing PMI.

New York Fed President William Dudley is to speak about the macroeconomic outlook in New York.

St. Louis Fed head James Bullard is to speak at an event in Arizona.

Tuesday, December 6

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a policy statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

In the euro zone, Germany is to report on factory orders.

Canada is to produce a report on the trade balance.

The U.S. is also to release trade data, along with reports on nonfarm productivity and factory orders.

Wednesday, December 7

Australia is to release data on third quarter economic growth.

The U.K. is to release industry data on house price inflation, as well as official figures on manufacturing and industrial production.

The Bank of Canada is to announce its benchmark interest rate and release its latest policy statement.

Thursday, December 8

Both China and Australia are to release trade data.

The European Central Bank is to announce its latest monetary policy decision. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.

Canada is to produce reports building permits and new house price inflation.

The U.S. is to release the weekly report on jobless claims.

Friday, December 9

China is to release data on consumer and producer price inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment for December from the University of Michigan.

Forex - Weekly outlook: December 5 - 9
 

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