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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 26 - 30

Published 05/25/2014, 05:53 AM
Dollar pushes higher against yen after upbeat U.S. housing data

Investing.com - The dollar rose to more than one-week highs against the yen on Friday as upbeat data on U.S. new home sales added to signs of a recovery in the housing market.

USD/JPY was up 0.25% to 101.96 late Friday, recovering from the three-and-a-half month trough of 100.81 struck on Wednesday. The pair ended the week with gains of 0.49%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.34, Thursday’s low and resistance at 102.27.

The dollar was boosted after the Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes rose by a larger-than-expected 6.4% to 433,000 in April, after two months of decline.

Analysts had been expecting a figure of 425,000. March's number was revised up from 384,000 to 407,000.

The dollar fell to three-and-a-half month lows against the yen on Wednesday as expectations for more stimulus by the Bank of Japan diminished, while declines in U.S. Treasury yields also pressured the dollar lower.

At the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, the BoJ said its stimulus program has been working as intended and that the economy is showing signs of weathering the impact of a sales tax increase that came into effect on April 1.

Meanwhile, Wednesday’s minutes of the Federal Reserve’s April meeting indicated that the bank continues to see a slow improvement in the economy, but reiterated that rates are likely to remain on hold at record lows for some time after its asset purchase program ends.

Elsewhere, EUR/JPY ended Friday’s session at 139.02, not far from the three-and-a-half month trough of 138.13 struck on Wednesday.

The euro weakened after weak German business sentiment data underlined expectations that the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy at its next meeting in June.

The week ahead will be shortened, with U.S. markets staying shut on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday. Revised data on U.S. first quarter growth and reports on U.S. consumer confidence will be in focus, while data on inflation and retail sales from Japan will also be closely watched.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 26

The BoJ is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.

U.S. markets are to remain closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

Tuesday, May 27

The U.S. is to produce data on durable goods orders, house price inflation and consumer confidence.

Wednesday, May 28

BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo.

Thursday, May 29

Japan is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity.

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter GDP, as well as the weekly government report on initial jobless claims and data on pending home sales.

Friday, May 30

Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production, as well as reports on household spending and inflation.

The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on personal income and expenditure and revised data from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment.

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