Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

Dollar ends week lower vs. safe haven yen

Investing.com - The dollar pushed higher against the yen on Friday, but was still close to a three-week low struck earlier in the week, as concerns over the crisis in Ukraine continued to underpin safe haven demand.

USD/JPY was at 101.85 late Friday, holding above the three-week trough of 101.42 reached on Tuesday. For the week, the pair was down 0.27%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.42 and resistance at 102.25, the high of May 5.

Investors remained cautious ahead of a weekend referendum by pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's two eastern regions, which has been condemned by Ukraine’s government and the West.

The dollar fell to the weakest level since mid-April against the yen earlier in the week following dovish comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, who said a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the U.S. economy.

The comments came during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Elsewhere Friday, the yen rose to two-month highs against the broadly weaker euro, with EUR/JPY at 140.09 late Friday, the weakest since March 4. The pair ended the week down 1.15%.

The drop in the euro came after ECB President Mario Draghi said Thursday the bank is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June.

The ECB left rates on hold on Thursday, as expected.

Draghi also said the strength of the euro was “a serious concern” and added that the bank would be closely monitoring exchange rate developments.

The single currency came under additional pressure after data on Friday showed that German exports fell 1.8% from a month earlier in March and the country posted a smaller-than-forecast trade surplus.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to preliminary data on first quarter economic growth from Japan, while the U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

Japan is to release data on its current account.

Later Monday, the U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

The U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

Japan is to publish preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The nation is also to release a report on tertiary industry activity. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo; his comments will be closely watched.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.