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Forex - USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 30 - July 4

Published 06/29/2014, 06:19 AM
Dollar falls to 1-month low against firmer yen
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Investing.com - The dollar fell to one-month lows against the firmer yen on Friday as upbeat U.S. consumer sentiment data failed to bolster the outlook for the wider recovery after data earlier in the week showed that first quarter growth was revised down sharply.

USD/JPY touched lows of 101.32 on Friday, the weakest since May 21, and was last at 101.41, down 0.30%. For the week, the pair lost 0.66%.

The pair is likely to find support at 101.00 and resistance at 101.72, Friday’s high.

The final reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index rose to 82.5 this month from 81.9 in May, compared to expectations of 82.2.

The report did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates on hold for an extended period after data on Wednesday showed that the U.S. economy contracted more sharply than expected in the first quarter of 2014.

The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the first three months of the year, compared to the consensus forecast for a decline of 1.7%.

U.S. first quarter GDP was initially reported to have increased by 0.1%, but was subsequently revised to show a contraction of 1.0%.

The dollar came under additional pressure after data on Thursday showed that U.S. consumer spending rose by just 0.2% in May, below forecasts for 0.4%.

Demand for the yen was boosted on Friday after stronger-than-forecast data on Japanese retail sales for May curbed expectations for additional monetary easing by the Bank of Japan.

The US Dollar Index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was at 80.08 late Friday, down 0.23%.

The euro was flat against the yen late Friday, with EUR/JPY at 138.45, and ended the week down 0.22%.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, due to be released one day early on Thursday, for further indications on the strength of the labor market.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of this and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 30

Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.

The U.S. is to produce data on manufacturing activity in the Chicago region and a report on pending home sales.

Tuesday, July 1

Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on manufacturing activity.

Wednesday, July 2

The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.

Later Wednesday, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is to speak at an event in Washington; her comments will be closely watched.

Thursday, July 3

The U.S. is to release data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. The U.S. is also to publish what will be closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate, one day ahead of schedule due to the fourth of July holiday.

Later Thursday, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.

Friday, July 4

Markets in the U.S. are to remain closed for the Independence Day holiday.

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