Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: May 12 - 16

Euro falls to one-month lows against dollar on ECB easing talk

Investing.com - The euro extended losses against the dollar into a second session on Friday, falling to a one-month low at the close, one day after the European Central Bank flagged possible monetary easing as soon as next month.

EUR/USD was at 1.3756 late Friday, the weakest level since April 8, down 0.60% on the day. For the week, the pair was off 0.85%.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3695 and resistance at 1.3843, Friday’s high.

The euro fell from two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi said the bank is “comfortable” with acting to shore up growth and stop inflation from falling too low at its next meeting in June.

The comments came after the ECB left rates on hold, as expected.

Draghi also said the strength of the euro was “a serious concern” and added that the bank would be closely monitoring exchange rate developments.

The single currency came under additional pressure after data on Friday showed that German exports fell 1.8% from a month earlier in March and the country posted a smaller-than-forecast trade surplus.

The euro dropped to two-month lows against the yen, with EUR/JPY at 140.09 late Friday, the weakest since March 4. The pair ended the week down 1.15%.

The U.S. dollar weakened against the other major currencies earlier in the week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen struck a dovish tone on the economy during testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress.

Speaking Wednesday, Ms. Yellen said that a high degree of monetary accommodation remains warranted given the slack in the economy.

The Fed chief also said the bank expects economic growth to accelerate this year despite the slowdown in the first quarter but warned that the recent housing market slowdown "could prove more protracted than currently expected."

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to preliminary data on first quarter growth in the euro zone, while the U.S. is to publish reports on retail sales, consumer prices and consumer sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 12

The U.S. is to publish data on the federal budget balance.

Tuesday, May 13

The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.

The U.S. is to produce data on retail sales, as well as reports on import prices and business inventories.

Wednesday, May 14

The euro zone is to produce data on industrial production.

Later Wednesday, the U.S. is to release data on producer price inflation.

Thursday, May 15

The euro zone is to publish preliminary data on first quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth. The bloc is also to produce revised data on consumer inflation.

The U.S. is to release data on initial jobless claims, consumer inflation and industrial production, as well as a report on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

Friday, May 16

The U.S. is to round up the week with reports on building permits and housing starts, and a preliminary reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.