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Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 15 - 19

ForexApr 14, 2013 10:57AM ET
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Investing.com - The euro ended almost unchanged against the dollar on Friday, as weak economic data out of the U.S. reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue its quantitative easing program.

EUR/USD hit session highs of 1.3127, before settling at 1.3111, edging up 0.07% for the day and rising 0.62% for the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 1.3037, Friday’s low and near-term resistance at 1.3137, Thursday’s high and a six-week high.

Official data showed that U.S. retail sales fell 0.4% in March, the largest decline in nine months and missing expectations for a 0.1% increase.

A separate report showed that the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell to 72.3 in April, the lowest level since July, from a final reading of 78.6 in March.

Another report showed that U.S. producer price inflation declined 0.6% in March, more than the 0.2% drop expected.

Earlier in the week the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed that policymakers are still divided about over when to wind up the bank’s easing program, but the meeting was held before data showed that the U.S. economy added far fewer than expected jobs in March.

Demand for the single currency continued to be indirectly supported by the Bank of Japan’s massive monetary stimulus program.

In the euro zone, concerns that Cyprus may need a larger bailout were offset by data showing that industrial production in the euro zone rose more than expected in February.

Eurostat said industrial production in the euro zone rose 0.4%, better than expectations for a 0.1% increase. However, industrial production was down 3.1% year-on-year, while January’s figure was revised to a drop of 0.6% from an initial estimate for a 0.4% decline.

In the coming week, the U.S. is to publish a broad range of economic data, with reports on manufacturing activity, the housing sector and inflation due for release. Investors will be closely watching this data as they attempt to gauge the strength of the U.S. recovery.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is to publish official data on consumer inflation, while the ZEW Institute is to release its highly anticipated index of German economic sentiment.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, April 15

The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in New York state, a leading economic indicator.

Tuesday, April 16

The euro zone is also to publish official data on consumer inflation, while the ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading economic indicator.

The U.S. is to publish official data on building permits, an excellent indicator of future construction activity and on housing starts. The U.S. is also to release data on consumer inflation, industrial production and the capacity utilization rate.

Wednesday, April 17

Germany is to hold an auction of 10-year government bonds.

Thursday, April 18

In the euro zone, France and Spain are to hold auctions of 10-year government bonds.

The U.S. is to release the weekly government report on initial jobless claims as well as data on manufacturing activity in Philadelphia.

Friday, April 19

The euro zone is to release official data on the current account, while Germany is to produce government data on producer prices.

Forex - EUR/USD weekly outlook: April 15 - 19

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