EUR/PLN: ING forecasts more rate cuts for Polish zloty as inflation nears target

Published 07/04/2025, 06:36 AM
© Reuters.

Investing.com - The National Bank of Poland may implement additional interest rate cuts following yesterday’s dovish press conference, according to ING economists.

NBP Governor Adam Glapinski stated that while the recent action does not mark the beginning of a cutting cycle, he did not rule out another reduction in September, depending on economic data. Glapinski mentioned 3% as a potential terminal rate if inflation returns to the target of 2.5%.

ING economists express optimism that inflation will reach the target by July, projecting rates to move toward 3.5%. However, given the governor’s comments, they suggest markets should consider a range of 3.00-3.50% for future rate pricing.

Poland’s zloty strengthened during the first half of the day and at the beginning of the press conference, maintaining significant gains despite some pullback after Glapinski’s dovish shift in tone.

ING maintains a bearish outlook on the Polish currency, suggesting the prospect of additional rate cuts will continue pressuring the PLN. The bank notes the rate differential points toward levels around 4.290, with market pricing of further cuts likely to strengthen the bearish case for the zloty.

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