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EUR/USD remains above 1.12, as fears of Grexit continue to weigh

Published 06/15/2015, 04:56 PM
Updated 06/15/2015, 05:06 PM
The euro posted modest gains against the dollar on Monday, as Greece remained in focus

Investing.com -- EUR/USD rose modestly on Monday, as a weekend of unproductive talks in the Greek debt crisis provided the furthest indication that the cash-strapped nation could default on its sovereign debt.

The pair gained 0.0023 or 0.20% on Monday to 1.1283, remaining above 1.12 for the seventh consecutive session. EUR/USD traded between 1.1189 and 1.1295 on a choppy day of trading on Monday. The currency pair likely gained support at 1.1096, the low on June 7 and was met with resistance at 1.1386, the high from June 10.

In Brussels, weekend negotiations between Greece and its international creditors ended acrimoniously as the two sides failed to bridge wide gaps on issues ranging from pension reforms, taxes and a primary surplus level. Greece is running out of time before the final portions of its €240 billion bailout expire on June 30.

It is unknown if Greece has enough cash in emergency reserve funds to meet a €1.1 billion loan repayment to the International Monetary Fund at the end of the month. The IMF has remained adamant that Greece enact significant pension cuts and impose higher Value-Added Taxes on electricity before it agrees to a deal.

"We should work out an emergency plan because Greece would fall into a state of emergency," Germany's European Union commissioner Guenther Oettinger told reporters. "Energy supplies, pay for police officials, medical supplies, pharmaceutical products and much more (need to be covered)."

On Monday, yields on Greece 2-Year surged almost 300 basis points to 26.6% as the possibility of a Greek deal waned. Investors await Thursday's meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg for further developments in the saga. The uncertainty spilled over into debt markets as yields on the Italian and Spanish 10-year bonds each gained at least 14 basis points to move above 2.3%. Yields on the U.S. 10-Year fell three basis points to 2.358%.

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The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell 0.34% to 95.07, paring earlier gains amid mixed economic data.

The Federal Reserve's monthly index for industrial production fell by 0.2% last month, below low end of analysts' forecasts of a 0.1% gain. Manufacturing continued to weigh on the index, declining by 0.2% in May, marking its third negative reading in the last five months. Lags in consumer goods and construction spending contributed to the poor reading.

In addition, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey's General Business Conditions Index plunged 1.98 for May, well below the low-end of forecasts for a 4.00 gain.

At the same time, however, the National Association of Home Builders reported a five-point spike in its housing market index to 59 in May, significantly beyond analysts' high-end forecasts. The index received a boost from future sales, which soared by six points on the month to a reading of 69.

Investors await the start of the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day meeting on Tuesday for further hints on the timing of a much-anticipated U.S. interest rate hike. The Fed is widely expected to wait until September before raising its benchmark Fed Funds Rate for the first time in nearly a decade.

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