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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks hit 4-week high, Eurobonds in sight

Published 09/06/2010, 06:08 AM
Updated 09/06/2010, 06:12 AM

* Emerging stocks hit four-week highs, debt spreads edge in

* Czech Republic, Montenegro to launch euro bonds

* Hryvnia hits fresh 2-month low, rand strong

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Emerging stocks hit four-week highs on Monday following stronger than expected U.S. jobs data last week, and the Czech Republic and Montenegro began sales of euro-denominated bonds. Global markets rallied on Friday after data showing a smaller than expected drop in U.S. non-farm payrolls in August. U.S. markets are shut for a holiday on Monday. Risky assets such as emerging markets have been volatile in recent weeks as investors assess whether or not the U.S. will enter a double-dip recession.

"It's quiet today following the boost from the positive U.S. employment data last week, liquidity will be low with the U.S. holiday," said James Lord, emerging markets strategist at Morgan Stanley.

"Macroeconomic data will be closely watched to see if the scare we've had over global growth is over. The Fed's Beige Book survey on Wednesday could be one of these indicators of direction."

The MSCI emerging equities index <.MSCIEF> rose 0.8 percent to four-week highs and the Thomson Reuters emerging Europe index <.TRXFLDEEPU> gained 0.2 percent, also to four-week highs.

Emerging sovereign debt spreads tightened by 1 basis point to 276 bps over U.S. Treasuries <11EMJ>.

Sovereigns are looking to issue Eurobonds, taking advantage of spreads below the key 300 basis point level and the end of the vacation period for investors.

The Czech Republic has tightened guidance by five bps on a 2021 euro-denominated bond to mid-swaps +110/115 bps and orders already total more than 2 billion euros, according to Thomson Reuters service IFR. [ID:nLDE6850I7]

Montenegro set guidance on a debut Eurobond at a yield in the low 8 percent area for a 200 million euro five-year issue.

Other potential issuers in the next few weeks include Lithuania, Nigeria and Ukraine.

CURRENCY STRENGTH

Emerging market currencies were generally stronger. The Polish zloty hit a four-month high against the euro , boosted by strong growth data released last week.

The rand hovered near 2-1/2 year highs , helped by strength in the gold price, even though South Africa's central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 6.0 percent later this week. [ID:nLDE6821IA]

The Turkish lira hit a 2-1/2 week high against the dollar ahead of local holidays later this week, though Turkish stocks <.XU100> eased from record highs hit on Friday on Turkey's domestic recovery and strong banking sector.

Uncertainty may creep into Turkish markets, analysts said, as Turks vote on Sept 12 on constitutional reforms, a key test for the ruling AK Party's reform process and its popularity before a parliamentary election in 2011.

The Romanian leu edged up against the euro after hitting two-month lows last week following a government reshuffle that included the replacement of the finance minister.

Romanian five-year credit default swaps fell to 377.5 basis points from 383.8 bps on Friday, according to Markit, representing an easing off in debt insurance costs.

Analysts stayed cautious, however.

"We remain defensive on the leu, particularly ahead of a potential no-confidence vote in the autumn," said analysts at BNP Paribas in a client note.

The Ukrainian hryvnia also hit a two-month low in the aftermath of the resignation last week of the central bank's First Deputy Chairman Anatoly Shapovalov.

The central bank intervened to defend the currency on Friday, and generally keeps the hyrvnia in a tightly-managed band.

(Additional reporting by Sebastian Tong; editing by Patrick Graham)

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