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EMERGING MARKETS-Stocks hit 1-mth low, rouble falters

Published 01/25/2010, 06:45 AM
Updated 01/25/2010, 06:48 AM

* Emerging stocks hit 1-month low, debt spreads narrow

* Rouble hits 2010 low against basket as oil falls

* Forint edges up ahead of expected 25 bp rate cut

* Vietnam to price $1 bln 10-year global bond

By Carolyn Cohn

LONDON, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Emerging stocks hit 1-month lows on Monday as nerves about U.S. plans for banks further dented demand for risky assets, and lower oil prices drove Russia's rouble to 2010 lows, but several emerging European currencies rose. The plans to tighten U.S. bank trading rules added to jitters from deficit woes in Greece, on the outer periphery of the euro zone and a trading partner of many emerging European countries, and monetary tightening in China, seen sapping demand for goods from commodity-exporting emerging markets.

Emerging European currencies gained some ground, however, in a corrective move, and emerging European stock indices outperformed the global index.

"Following the drop in equity markets on Friday, mostly a follow-through from Greece, concern about U.S. monetary policy and Chinese tightening, we have had some respite," said Elisabeth Gruie, emerging markets strategist at BNP Paribas.

"We have reached cheaper levels for short-term bets in equities and currencies." Benchmark emerging equities <.MSCIEF> trimmed losses by 1125 GMT after hitting 1-month lows earlier. Stocks fell 4.6 percent last week, the largest one-week drop in nearly three months. Emerging sovereign debt spreads tightened by 7 basis points to 295 bps over U.S. Treasuries <11EMJ> after stretching beyond the key 300 bps level on Friday.

Embattled Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke edged closer to winning support for a second term [ID:nN24167367], providing support for higher-yielding markets. The rouble, however, gapped to the year's lows against a euro-dollar basket after oil approached one-month lows near $74 a barrel and Russian central bank deputy chair Alexei Ulyukaev said late on Friday the currency could weaken to 38, the floor of the currency's trading band, relatively soon.

Markets showed little reaction after Fitch last week became the second ratings agency in a month to raise Russia's sovereign rating outlook to stable from negative.

FORINT WORRIES

The forint rose from Friday's U.S. close ahead of an expected 25 basis point rate cut later in the session, to 6.0 percent.

Danske analysts recommend selling the forint against the Polish zloty.

"The reason that we see upside risk for rates in Hungary today is the potential effect on the forint that a rate cut could have, although it is largely expected," the analysts said in a client note.

"Risk aversion in the European fixed income universe is on the rise with the Greek troubles."

The forint hit nine-month lows against the zloty last week.

The economies of emerging Europe will expand by an average of 3.3 percent this year, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development said on Friday, but the economies of Hungary, Latvia and Lithuania will contract. [ID:nLDE60L1QL]

In new issue markets, Vietnam was due to price a $1 billion 10-year global bond later on Monday, at initial yield guidance of 6.95-7 percent.

The pricing delay, held over from last week, prompted speculation the deal was having some problems, after Asian bond spreads traded at their widest in six weeks on Friday.

Hungary completes investor presentations on Monday. Fund managers and bankers said the event was a "non-deal" roadshow, but analysts said a new deal could yet emerge.

(Editing by Toby Chopra)

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