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Dollar dips in nervous trade as Biden inches closer to White House

Published 11/04/2020, 07:47 PM
Updated 11/04/2020, 09:50 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration

By Stanley White

TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar slipped to its weakest level in more than two years against the yuan and ground lower against other Asian currencies as Democrat Joe Biden edged ever so closer to the White House in a nail-biting U.S. presidential election.

Financial markets, however, were braced for days or even weeks of uncertainty as Republican incumbent President Donald Trump has opened a multi-pronged attack on vote counts in several states by pursuing lawsuits and a recount.

That could hamper the dollar in the short run, traders say.

Elsewhere, sterling fell against the dollar and the euro after a media report that the Bank of England, which announces a policy decision later on Thursday, is considering negative interest rates.

The Federal Reserve, which is expected to keep policy on hold on Thursday, is also in focus as traders navigate market volatility in the wake of a knife-edge U.S. election that has pushed up the yuan and the Mexican peso.

Biden has claimed the pivotal Midwestern states of Wisconsin and Michigan. Late reporting showed the former vice president with a lead in Nevada and Arizona, while Trump held a lead in Georgia.

Expectations that a Biden win will take a slightly softer tone on trade policy is likely to weaken the dollar against the currencies of countries that often faced the threat of tariffs during Trump's administration, analysts said.

"The moves in the yuan and the peso show that the market is trying to price in a Biden victory," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist at Mizuho Securities in Tokyo.

"For slightly different reasons, we could also see the euro gain against the dollar."

The onshore yuan briefly rose to over a two-year high of 6.6381 per dollar, extending its recent gains as China's currency has become a popular trade to bet on a Biden victory.

Emerging market currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah also rose against the greenback.

The euro (EUR=EBS) bought $1.1713 in Asia on Thursday, steady from the previous session.

The British pound fell 0.35% to $1.2947. Against the euro, the pound (EURGBP=D3) fell 0.22% to 90.45 pence.

The dollar was little changed at 104.34 yen .

Even if Biden manages to surmount the legal challenges from Trump to become the next president, Republicans look likely to retain control of the Senate and can use that to stymie Biden's fiscal policy agenda - another complicating factor for currency traders.

Some analysts said Republican control of the Senate would prevent a Biden government from raising corporate taxes, which is positive for equities. However, a divided government also decreases the chances of big fiscal stimulus, which could be seen as a negative, other analysts said.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this photo illustration

The Mexican peso , which had suffered from the Trump administration's hard line on trade, gave up some of its 0.9% gain on Wednesday and fell back to 21.03 per dollar.

Latest comments

Politics finally explained: 2 politician coming to you and they both promising to do everything for you if you give them $100 in tax money. As soon you give them both $100 they run away as fast they can and you never see them again.
Trumpers are panicking
Tired of big money corrupting democracy. We need term limits for all Senate and US Congressional seats. 12 years for Senate and 10 for Congress. Patterned after the 22nd Amendment for the President.
Finally someone who gets it! Very smart comment indeed. I'm also tired of all the corrupt professional politicians who've sacrificed our country for their own self serving benefit. I just wish most of the readers on this forum would realize how important your comment is!
not a comment here since 20 min ago the article appeared. Wow, think about the tumultuous 4-year history of Donnie and now people still voting almost 1 out of 2 for Donnie. Fascinating. It tells a lot about the people's average level of education and their blindness to reality. Did you not know how uninformed Americans behave towards covid, their own nutrition, and their ability to defend their country? The DOD has statistics that nearly 20% of American youth are incapable of serving in the military due to obesity and cognitive incapacity, and you can blame that on the GOP's trying to save money on education, and that ends up causing bad choices for the population including who they vote for. It's a vicious circle.
So true, Chris. Thanks for the perspective.
Excellent analysis. This is one of the negatives of democracy that the one who is enlightened nd well informed is considered equal to the one who knows nothing about present, forgets past so quickly and of course no vision for future, still he votes nd matters because such masses r everywhere in the world. Thanks again for sharing such a beautiful message.
What is your education level? not even sure if you have your MS
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