Get 40% Off
⚠ Earnings Alert! Which stocks are poised to surge?
See the stocks on our ProPicks radar. These strategies gained 19.7% year-to-date.
Unlock full list

Euro/Swiss franc at two-month lows as Italy concerns weigh

Published 05/23/2018, 04:42 AM
Updated 05/23/2018, 04:42 AM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Swiss Franc and Euro banknotes of several values lie on a table in a Swiss bank in Bern

By Saikat Chatterjee

LONDON (Reuters) - The Swiss franc and the Japanese yen rose against the dollar on Wednesday as a wave of caution swept currency markets a day after U.S. President Donald Trump tempered optimism over progress made in trade talks with China.

Carry trades, where investors borrow in relatively low yielding currencies to invest in higher-yielding ones, came under pressure with the euro/swiss franc (EURCHF=EBS) cross being singled out for special punishment.

While the dollar against a basket of its rivals (DXY) rose 0.2 percent to 93.76, it weakened 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively.

Stocks tumbled and the yen gained broadly after Trump said on Tuesday he was not pleased with recent trade talks between the United States and China, the world's two biggest economies.

The euro was also pressured lower by concern over political risk in Italy. The single currency fell to a six-month low after German PMI data fell to a 20-month low indicating that economic momentum in Europe's biggest economy was faltering.

The euro/Swiss franc fell 0.3 percent to 1.1616 francs per euro (EURCHF=EBS), its lowest level since March 23.

The currency pair, a proxy for risk appetite within Europe, has fallen nearly 3 percent since May. 14 as concerns of a fiscally profligate new coalition government in Rome has raised concerns of a showdown with the European Union.

The likelihood of a government comprised of the anti-establishment 5-Star Movement and the far-right League has pushed Italian 10-year yields up nearly 60 basis points since the start of May. The bulk of that move has been over the past week. [GVD/EUR]

"The euro/franc cross encapsulates the growing risk premium that investors are placing on the euro in recent days and we may see further downside for now," said Alvin Tan, a currency strategist at Societe Generale (PA:SOGN) in London.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) strategists said the euro's recent weakness could prompt overseas investors to hedge their bond and equity investments in Europe, which could add further downside pressure on the euro.

The safe-haven yen also rose against other currency crosses and surged against the Turkish lira, amid talk of Japanese retail investors selling the lira as stop-loss levels were hit.

The yen tends to rise in times of market turbulence since Japan is the world's largest creditor nation and traders tend to assume Japanese investors would repatriate funds at times of crisis.

Investors are now looking to the release on Wednesday of the Fed's minutes from its most recent meeting, when it kept interest rates steady.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Swiss Franc and Euro banknotes of several values lie on a table in a Swiss bank in Bern

In its post-meeting statement issued in early May, the Fed also said inflation had "moved close" to its target and that "on a 12-month basis is expected to run near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.