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DAVOS-Policymakers warn of protectionism, higher oil price

Published 01/29/2009, 05:53 AM
Updated 01/29/2009, 05:56 AM

By Jonathan Lynn and Barbara Lewis

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Policymakers and business chiefs flagged new trouble for the global economy on Thursday, with India's trade minister warning of protectionism and OPEC saying it was determined to push up the price of oil.

One day after Chinese and Russian leaders told the World Economic Forum in this Swiss ski resort that unfettered debt-fuelled consumption was to blame for the global financial crisis, the head of JPMorgan criticised governments.

"JPMorgan would be fine if we stopped talking about (the) damn nationalisation of banks," Jamie Dimon told delegates.

Crisis-hit bankers are thin on the ground at the meeting, leaving policymakers to work behind the scenes on ways to fix the financial system, ahead of a summit of the G20 group of big and emerging countries in April and a G8 summit in July.

Dimon acknowledged bankers had done "some really stupid things" in the crisis, which many analysts link to bad high-risk loans made by U.S. banks which led to a credit freeze, but also criticised policymakers and regulators.

"I haven't yet seen people get all the right people in a room, close the damn door and come out with a solution," he said.

OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri said the producer group would not hesitate to act if the oil price remained low.

OPEC next meets in March and Badri said it was still monitoring the impact of cuts totalling 4.2 million barrels per day. But if the price remained low, it would act again, he said.

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"OPEC will not hesitate ... we are still reviewing," he said.

Oil prices are around $40 a barrel but Badri said even $50 would be low, and BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said a price of between $60-$80 a barrel was appropriate. "That seems to be what you need to get investment," Hayward said.

PROTECTIONIST THREAT

Investors are increasingly fearful of protectionist policies as a response to the worst global economic crisis in 80 years.

"In some places there are sounds of protectionism, in some places it is real," Indian trade minister Kamal Nath told Reuters. "We are seeing greater use in the western world of anti-dumping measures, non-tariff barriers being used in Europe.

"If there are protectionist measures India will be compelled to also take commensurate measures against those countries which will be good for no one," he said.

The deepening crisis, and the failure to complete the World Trade Organisation's long-running Doha round to free up global commerce, have raised fears that countries would block their partners' exports to protect jobs at home.

Such protectionism, if it leads to tit-for-tat retaliation, would intensify the crisis, as happened in the 1930s with the Great Depression.

The financial crisis has prompted trillions of dollars to be spent on bank bailouts and economic stimulus packages. It has also prompted the International Monetary Fund to intervene in a number of particularly hard-hit countries.

Talks between Turkey and an IMF team in Ankara on a stand-by deal expected to be about $25 billion ran into difficulties and were suspended on Monday. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan said on Thursday talks with the IMF would continue and no conclusion had been reached, after he met IMF First Deputy Managing Director John Lipsky in Davos.

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GLOBAL SECURITY

Foreign policy and global security was high on Thursday's agenda in this snow-capped mountain town. Iran's foreign minister and the head of the U.N. nuclear, Mohamed ElBaradei, were present along with leaders from Israel and the Arab world.

Britain's Guardian newspaper reported that U.S. officials were drafting a letter to Iran from U.S. President Barack Obama aimed at unfreezing U.S.-Iranian relations and opening the way to direct talks.

The U.S. State Department has been working on drafts of the letter since Obama was elected in November, the report said. It was a response to a letter of congratulations sent by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad after Obama's poll victory.

The letter gives assurances that Washington does not want to overthrow the Iranian administration, but instead seeks changes in its behaviour. It would be addressed to the Iranian people and sent directly to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or released as an open letter.

For full coverage, blogs and TV from Davos go to www.reuters.com/davos

(Writing by Mike Peacock, Editing by Timothy Heritage)

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