Asia FX, dollar subdued as investors assess Fed rate path after soft US CPI

Published 05/14/2025, 01:40 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies and the U.S. dollar were subdued on Wednesday as investors weighed the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook following softer-than-expected inflation data and a U.S.-China trade truce.

Bucking the regional trend, the Japanese yen strengthened on growing bets of a Bank of Japan rate hike.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, was marginally lower in Asian trade on Wednesday, after sharp declines in the previous session. 

Markets assess Fed rate path after soft CPI, trade deal

Data on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer price index inflation came in softer than estimates, alleviating some fears about the impact of U.S. trade tariffs.

Meanwhile, Monday’s joint announcement from the U.S. and China to temporarily ease respective tariffs eased global recession fears.

These developments provided some leeway to the Fed to adjust rates, but analysts warned that the central bank may remain on the sidelines, assessing further tariff negotiations.

In their last meeting, Fed officials appeared inclined to wait for clear signs of economic deterioration before cutting rates, prioritizing their inflation-fighting credibility over short-term economic support.

“So while the de-escalation of trade tensions is helpful for growth, it also makes it more likely that inflation will be less of an issue for the Federal Reserve and the scope for Fed rate cuts remains,” ING analysts said in a note.

With rate cut expectations, the dollar slid on Tuesday and remained subdued on Wednesday.

Most Asian currencies muted, Japanese yen bucks trend

The Japanese yen’s USD/JPY pair fell 0.5%, extending declines, after data on Wednesday showed that Japan’s wholesale inflation rose to 4.0% in April, highlighting persistent price pressures that are expected to keep the central bank on track for additional interest rate hikes.

Other regional currencies were largely muted.

The Chinese yuan’s offshore USD/CNH pair edged 0.2% higher, while the onshore USD/CNY pair was little changed.

The South Korean won’s USD/KRW pair and the Singapore dollar’s USD/SGD, were both flat.

The Australian dollar’s AUD/USD pair edged up 0.1%. 

The Indian rupee’s USD/INR pair was also muted, after declines in the previous two sessions amid heightened India-Pakistan geopolitical tensions.

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