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Asia FX falls as Fed jitters boost dollar, central banks awaited

Published Jun 04, 2023 10:34PM ET
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Investing.com -- Most Asian currencies retreated on Monday, while the dollar traded near two-month highs amid uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates in June, with focus now turning to central bank meetings in India and Australia this week.

The dollar advanced in Asian trade, with the dollar index and dollar index futures adding about 0.1% each. Both instruments were also close to two-month highs as data on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls jumped far more than expected in May, pointing to a robust U.S. labor market.

The reading, coupled with stronger-than-expected print on the Fed’s preferred inflation index earlier in May, presented a hawkish outlook for the central bank in June.

But a slew of Fed officials touted the possibility of a pause in rate hikes this month, calling on the Fed to take stock of its year-long rate hike crusade against inflation. This brewed some uncertainty over how the central bank may act next week, especially given that other facets of the U.S. economy appear to be slowing.

Still, the central bank is widely expected to keep rates higher for longer, which presents more headwinds to risk-heavy Asian markets.

China’s yuan fell 0.2%, moving back towards a six-month low following a weak daily midpoint fix from the People’s Bank. The currency took little support from a private survey showing stronger-than-expected growth in China’s services sector, given that overall economic activity still remained under pressure.

Focus this week is on Chinese trade and inflation data for more cues on Asia’s largest economy, as it struggles to recover from three years of COVID disruptions. A swathe of mixed economic readings for May pointed to slowing momentum in the economy after a strong start to the year.

Markets are also awaiting central bank meetings in Australia and India this week, although both banks are expected to keep rates steady after sharp hikes over the past year. But there also exists a slim chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia, given that inflation unexpectedly rose in April.

The Indian rupee was flat, while the Australian dollar fell 0.3%.

Waning safe haven demand, after the passing of a bill to raise the U.S. debt ceiling, pushed the Japanese yen back to the 140 level to the dollar, while disappointing service sector activity data for May also weighed.

The Thai baht was the worst performer in Asia, down 0.7% amid continued uncertainty over the formation of a new government in the country.

Asia FX falls as Fed jitters boost dollar, central banks awaited
 

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Comments (1)
dylan mulvaney
dylan mulvaney Jun 04, 2023 10:40PM ET
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But weren't we told on Friday to buy these hyper-valuated trillion dollar companies because Fed was going to pause interest rates despite higher than expected inflation? Could not even wait until Monday to already start going back to "Fed rate hike fears" again as expected. They pumped the market like they wanted with the debt ceiling news now we going to get another year+ of dump/stagnation especially going into 2024 elections. Let's see if China released COVID-23 to help Biden hide in the basement again.
dwight jensen
dwight jensen Jun 04, 2023 10:40PM ET
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Then short the top
Martin Babei
Martin Babei Jun 04, 2023 10:40PM ET
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Trump hid in the basement in my recollection, you fake news Russian propagandist.
dylan mulvaney
dylan mulvaney Jun 04, 2023 10:40PM ET
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Martin Babei  Your brain is probably damaged from all the boosters you took, but Trump was president at the time and democrats/Biden was the one hiding in the basement. Biden even broke his foot after "tripping over his dog" after getting out of the shower. The first of over a dozen falls from the past few years.
 
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