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Bond scares linger, investors look to Powell

Published 03/03/2021, 09:27 PM
Updated 03/04/2021, 06:01 AM
© Reuters. A man is reflected on a stock quotation board in Tokyo

By Tom Arnold and Hideyuki Sano

LONDON (Reuters) - Worries about lofty U.S. bond yields hit global shares on Thursday as investors waited to see if Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell would address concerns about a rapid rise in long-term borrowing costs.

The spectre of higher U.S. bond yields also undermined low-yielding, safe-haven assets, such as the yen, the Swiss franc and gold.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries slipped to 1.453%. They earlier touched their highest levels since a one-year high of 1.614% set last week on bets on a strong economic recovery aided by government stimulus and progress in vaccination programmes.

"Equities and yields continue to both drive and thwart one another," said James Athey, investment director at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

"Fed speech continues to express very little concern and certainly is not suggestive of any imminent action to curb the rise in yields. The Powell speech today is hotly anticipated, but I fear more out of hope than rational expectation."

The Euro STOXX 600 was down 0.5% and London's FTSE 0.6% lower.

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, lost 0.5%, its third day running of losses.

The MSCI's ex-Japan Asian-Pacific shares lost 1.8%, while Japan's Nikkei fell 2.1% to its lowest since Feb. 5.

E-mini S&P futures slipped 0.2%. Futures for the Nasdaq, the leader of the post-pandemic rally, fell 0.1%, earlier hitting a two-month low.

Tech shares are vulnerable because their lofty valuation has been supported by expectations of a prolonged period of low interest rates.

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But the market is focused on Powell, who is due to speak at a Wall Street Journal conference at 12:05 p.m. EST (1705 GMT), in what will be his last outing before the Fed's policy-making committee convenes March 16-17.

Many Fed officials have downplayed the rise in Treasury yields in recent days, although Fed Governor Lael Brainard on Tuesday acknowledged that concerns over the possibility a rapid rise in yields could dampen economic activity.

In addition, anxiety is building over a pending regulatory change in a rule called the supplementary leverage ratio, or SLR, which could make it more costly for banks to hold bonds.

"The market is likely to be unstable until this regulation issue will be sorted out," said Masahiko Loo, portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein (NYSE:AB). "There aren't people who want to catch a falling knife when market volatility is so high."

The market will also have to grapple with a huge increase in debt sales after rounds of stimulus to deal with a recession triggered by the pandemic.

The issue is not limited to the United States, with the 10-year UK Gilts yield on Wednesday touching 0.796%, near last week's 11-month high of 0.836%, after the government unveiled much higher borrowing.

On Thursday, Germany's 10-year yield was down 2 basis points to -0.31% after rising 5 basis points on Wednesday, still moving in tandem with U.S. Treasuries.

Currency investors continued to snap up dollars as they bet on the U.S. economy outperforming its peers in the developed world in coming months. The dollar rose to a roughly seven-month high of 107.33 yen.

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"U.S. dollar/yen has been on a one-way trajectory since the start of 2021," said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY). "The brightening outlook for the world economy is a positive for both U.S. dollar/yen and Australian dollar/yen."

Other safe-haven currencies were weakened, with the Swiss franc dropping to a five-month low against the dollar and a 20-month trough versus the euro.

Other major currencies were little changed, with the euro flat at $1.2054.

Gold fell to a near nine-month low of $1,702.8 per ounce on Wednesday and last stood at $1,714.

Investor focus on a U.S. economic rebound was unshaken by data released overnight that showed the U.S. labour market struggling in February, when private payrolls rose less than expected.

Oil prices rose for a second straight session on Thursday, as the possibility that OPEC+ producers might decide against increasing output at a key meeting later in the day underpinned a drop in U.S. fuel inventories.

U.S. crude rose 0.6% to $61.65 per barrel. Brent crude futures added 0.7% to $64.54 a barrel,

Latest comments

I thought Crypto was supposed to be the one that was volatile and risky
the new era to stock market where everything is like crypto, just 1 huge online casino.
The bull has a good run for more than a dozen years. I believe it will continue another decade. Buy and earn dividend each year. Nobody worries about recession or depression because we keep printing money!
Very well said
Time to go all in crypto, its less volotile than the market.
And more places each day accepting it
Stimulus news is needed ASAP
Nobody knows whats a bottom to buy
Biden administration is buring US stock market
Inflation is coming surely we about to be shocked at the numbers that come out and whatever Powell says if he is forced to he will raise interest rates early and that my friends is me holding my Tesla sell and Gold. You Iike it or not the trillions they printed last year and will print this year will be the reason they are forced to raise sit back and relax
Options now are limited. It would anyway create more malfeasance if more tools are used to suppress rising yields that are the result of currency devaluation from excessive liquidity and minimal interest rates. For long-term economic health, the opportunity is now to allow over valued markets to adjust to rising yields that are still historically low while fed rates remain nominal.
By May the US economy will be fully open. Demand will like not seen in 100 years. Buy every stock now!!!!
The question what to to with ETF I have They dropped catastroficslly I still keeping them
Don't consider this "advice," but knowing what I know, I'd buy ETFs - but only as a high interest savings options (banks are no good for saving anything). But it should be in something with growth potential in the next decade. Remember, this is buy and hold. Perhaps solar/wind, electric vehicle, artificial intelligence, self-driving tech, genetics research, outer space tech, and then anything with broad market perspective, like the whole stock market (VT/VTI), s&p, dow, etc. The question is not what to buy, it's WHEN to buy. That's the question you have to answer for yourself.
Don't consider this "advice," but knowing what I know, I'd buy ETFs - but only as a high interest savings options (banks are no good for saving anything). But it should be in something with growth potential in the next decade. Remember, this is buy and hold. Perhaps solar/wind, electric vehicle, artificial intelligence, self-driving tech, genetics research, outer space tech, and then anything with broad market perspective, like the whole stock market (VT/VTI), s&p, dow, etc. The question is not what to buy, it's WHEN to buy. That's the question you have to answer for yourself.
The institutions are selling so that they can buy at lower price later
Lol BS they just ripping the retails
Rates must first normalize to pre-pandemic levels and then consider the fiscal stimulus effects of a lot more helicopter money (which will be borrowed). There is not going to be a shortage of bond supply while demand may "demand" a few more points. Meanwhile, DCFs in action with the growth stocks.
It is Biden fault. Treasury's issuing approximately $4 trillion in government debt in 2021, according to ING Bank. Fed is buying 120b a month. More Supply than demand.
It is Trump fault, not Biden. Face the reality.
Fed's monthly 120B purchases began several months ago.
Its actually our fault. Take accountability like a man instead of blaming like a cheeto
Just raise interest rates, Powell. Everyone is overleveraged in this market bubble from retail to institutions and this is a threat to long term market and currency stability. Jusr get it over with.
He cannot raise interest rates, the entire stock market would collapse. He'd rather destroy the dollar buying bonds and bring in a Fedcoin than let rates rise.
Just raise interest rates. Everyone and their mother is in the markets trading on margain. This is the end game so just get it over with.
Fed is caught . They will not dare to tighten . I would buy gold here and i would needle on tech . Been overweight in financials ( banks ) and somewhat in oil since october of last year when no one wanted them so will likely dont add there . Yes evaluation on tech are lofty but is lots of cash splashing around so dont sweat it . Tomorrow dip is a buy . Bring it on :)
Powell and Biden still sleeping
Unbelievable unfair to everyone what seller do here. That's just devastating damage
Maybe don’t buy TSLA after an 800% run lol
to be fair they are profit harvesting the entire sector
He speaks at 12. so can we expect a blood bath for the first 3 hours of the market?
Maybe a 3760 drop nothing further
4 hour demand zone starts at $3767.47. Below that is another 4 hour starting at $3738.18. Then a big weekly one starting at $3718.46.
If you want excemptional profits you buy stock which what ever money you got. I do.
In May the whole US economy will be open again. Demand especially tech will be like not seen in 100 years.
not since the Weimar Republic at least. get your wheelbarrows ready
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