US push to challenge China’s shipping dominance risks backfiring

Published 02/24/2025, 08:51 AM
© Reuters

Investing.com -- The Trump administration is proposing new fees on Chinese-built commercial ships as part of an effort to curb Beijing’s dominance in global maritime trade.

The Office of the US Trade Representative outlined plans to impose levies on Chinese vessels that transport goods, along with new mandates requiring a portion of US exports to be shipped on American-flagged vessels.

The proposal follows a trade investigation into China’s shipbuilding, maritime, and logistics sectors, which started under the Biden administration and concluded just before Trump took office.

The US found that China has been “winning market share with dramatic effect” by undercutting global competition, growing its share of global commercial shipbuilding from under 5% in 1999 to more than 50% in 2023. China also owns 19% of the world’s commercial fleet and controls 95% of shipping container production.

Under the proposed measures, Chinese-built ships entering US ports could face fees as high as $1 million.

The administration also plans to gradually increase requirements for US goods to be transported on American vessels. Initially, at least 1% of US maritime exports would have to be carried on ships that are both US-flagged and operated, with the threshold rising to 15% over seven years. Eventually, additional requirements would mandate that ships be built in the US.

While aimed at strengthening US shipbuilding, the proposal could also lead to higher shipping costs, which may be passed on to American consumers.

It remains unclear whether the measures will be enough to rebuild the country’s long-declining shipbuilding industry. The proposed fees and shipping mandates, introduced under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, are now open for public comment, with a hearing scheduled for next month.

Citing data from Linerlytica, ING analysts said approximately 17% of container vessels calling at US ports are Chinese-made, though the percentage is likely higher for ultra-large container carriers operating on transpacific routes.

They note that the proposed measures would effectively bar major Chinese shipping company COSCO (HK:1199) from accessing US ports.

“This means that a significant portion of imports entering the US via ports would be directly subject to hefty fines, as these additional expenses would likely be passed on from the carrier to shippers and, ultimately, to importers and exporters,” analysts said.

"And if we look at the huge total orderbook of new more efficient vessels, carriers ordered more than 60% with Chinese shipyards. This means China's dominance is set to rise over the next few years,” they added.

Overall, analysts believe that the Trump administration's proposed actions reflect a broader America First approach, extending beyond trade to include investment, technology, and both foreign and domestic companies that depend on Chinese-operated firms.

"This sets in motion the bigger threat of a new trade war: not limiting punitive action to actual goods trade but targeting every item on a never-ending wish list,” they concluded.

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