By Senad Karaahmetovic
Goldman Sachs analysts offered their latest thoughts on the banking crisis in the country. They believe it is “too early to have a confident view on the implications of the current banking turmoil for the U.S. economy.”
Analysts have flagged tighter credit conditions amid heightened financial stability risks as a headwind for companies.
“Reduced credit availability will prove to be a headwind that helps the Fed keep growth below potential despite the support from rising real income and better global growth, not a hurricane that pushes the economy into recession and forces the Fed to ease aggressively. The risks are clearly skewed toward larger negative effects,” they wrote in a note to clients.
The investment bank recently increased the chances of the U.S. entering a recession to 35% from the prior 20%. The market currently assigns around a 60% possibility.
“Our baseline growth forecast for 2023 of 1.1% on a Q4/Q4 basis remains well above the committee’s 0.4%, so it is not surprising that our baseline forecast of 5¼-5½% for the peak funds rate—with 25bp hikes in May and June followed by no cuts until 2024Q2—is also higher than the committee’s 5-5¼%. Because of the downside risks, our probability-weighted forecast for 2024Q2 is a substantially lower 4%. However, even this estimate is above market pricing of 3½%,” analysts further noted.
The banking sector crisis also prompted Goldman Sachs to lower Eurozone growth numbers. On the other hand, China's growth forecast is increased to 6% YoY.