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Investing.com -- Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) could see further upside supported by three key trends, according to Morgan Stanley.
In a recent note, the brokerage maintained an “equal weight” rating on the stock but expressed near-term optimism ahead of the company’s June 25 earnings report.
The first driver is Micron’s growing exposure to artificial intelligence markets. Morgan Stanley projects AI-related revenue, primarily from high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and LPDDR used in AI servers and systems, will nearly double by the end of fiscal 2025.
HBM alone is expected to contribute to a 30% increase in blended pricing by November.
The brokerage forecasts direct AI revenue to rise from about 14% of sales in February to nearly 30% by November. Morgan Stanley models HBM sales reaching $2 billion in the August quarter, with growth continuing into the fourth quarter.
The brokerage noted that SK Hynix, which generates a similar proportion of revenue from HBM, has seen gross margins approach 60%, suggesting potential for Micron to benefit as its AI mix increases.
The second reason is easing margin pressures. In the May quarter, Micron’s gross margins were constrained by higher consumer mix and NAND underutilization.
These are expected to ease, with improved volumes in enterprise SSDs and rising prices supporting recovery. Spot DDR4 pricing, while only about 10% of Micron’s revenue, has risen 150% year-over-year, potentially boosting earnings.
Micron also stands to benefit from trends similar to Sandisk, which recently guided for four percentage points of margin expansion, including underutilization.
Morgan Stanley expects Micron’s gross margin to improve from 37.0% in the May quarter to 43.9% in the August quarter, compared to consensus at 36.4% and 39.5%, respectively.
Third, while valuation is not considered cheap, it remains below historical peaks. At $121.82 per share, Micron trades at approximately 3x book value, below the nearly 4x reached during 2023’s AI boom and in line with prior cycle peaks.
Morgan Stanley values the stock at 14x $7 of through-cycle earnings, incorporating a premium for AI upside.
This yields a base-case price target of $98. At peak, Micron earned around $12–$13 per share, and Morgan Stanley expects EPS to approach those levels as soon as the next quarter.
Its forecast for the August quarter includes $10.32 billion in revenue and $2.47 in EPS, well above the Street’s $9.89 billion and $2.02 estimates.
Despite the constructive view, Morgan Stanley flagged risks including potential inventory build-ups, weaker-than-expected demand, and ongoing capital spending requirements. It also pointed out that Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) may offer better free cash flow returns relative to Micron.
Still, as long as AI-driven demand holds, Morgan Stanley sees scope for Micron’s fundamentals to continue improving and for investor interest to remain high.