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Marketmind: Peak growth, Delta woes and the end of the reflation trade

EconomyJul 08, 2021 03:01AM ET
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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: European Central Bank (ECB) headquarters building is seen in Frankfurt, Germany, March 7, 2018. REUTERS/Ralph Orlowski/File Photo

A look at the day ahead from Karin Strohecker.

While things might be a bit blurry for elated England fans this morning, markets seem to have made up their mind that the end is nigh for the reflation trade.

Stocks are feeling the pain, courtesy of a fall in tech stocks, with European bourses indicating lower, while U.S. Treasuries rallied again, pushing their yields lower for an eighth straight day.

That was good news for the dollar, which climbed to near-three month highs. Bond markets from Germany and Italy to China joined into the fixed income rally.

Markets are concerned that growth might have peaked and the Delta variant, fuelling a rise in coronavirus cases across the world, might douse the economic recovery.

Last night's much anticipated Fed minutes don't get much of a mention this morning. They showed that officials last month felt substantial further progress on the U.S. economic recovery "was generally seen as not having yet been met," but agreed they need to be ready to act.

It's a big day for the ECB, which will announce the outcome of a 18-month strategy review, redefining its inflation target and laying down what role it plans to play in the fight against climate change. The bank is expected to hone in on 2% and ditch the current "below but close to" pre-amble, likely declaring the target also symmetric.

But the ECB isn't the only one focussed on climate change: Japan's central bank will likely offer zero interest, long-term funds to commercial lenders that provide loans or investment for activities aimed at combating climate change, said sources.

A fairly quiet day in corporate news, with Deliveroo shares seen rising after reporting an 88% jump in second-quarter orders to 78 million.

Key developments that should provide more direction to markets on Thursday:

-ECB to unveil tweaked inflation target, climate role on Thursday

- UK house prices rise by most since 1988-UK June RICS housing survey

-German exports up 0.3% in May

-Poland central bank meeting

-Malaysia central bank meeting

-Europe earnings: OMV, Wallenstam, Persimmon (LON:PSN), Hansen, Entra

Bond yields tumble, real and nominal https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dgkvlrqdavb/bonds0707.png

Marketmind: Peak growth, Delta woes and the end of the reflation trade
 

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Erich Seahan
Erich Seahan Jul 08, 2021 7:00AM ET
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I heard that the shares of www.worktime.com are only going up.
 
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