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Investors add to cash as "taper tantrum" and taxation risks grow: BofA survey

Published 04/13/2021, 03:57 AM
Updated 04/13/2021, 04:00 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - Fund managers increased their cash allocations as expectations of higher inflation, taxation changes and a "taper tantrum" leave equities vulnerable to pullbacks, BofA's April fund manager survey released on Tuesday found.

Though the majority of investors in the survey said equities were not in a bubble, BofA said positioning was peaking with a near-record 62% of investors "overweight" on stocks.

Unprecedented stimulus measures to tackle the COVID-19- induced recession have now sparked worries about inflation, prompting investors to raise their rate hike expectations.

Worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve would scale back - or "taper" - its quantitative easing programme was seen as the biggest risk among investors.

Discussions about a minimum global corporate tax rate and a rise in the corporate tax rate in the United States in the past few weeks have soured the outlook for equities.

Investors' cash allocation rose to 4.1% last week versus 3.8% in February, the survey showed.

After soaring 82% from March 2020 lows and scaling $90 trillion in market capitalisation, world stocks are holding up near record highs.

Still, two-thirds of the 200 panellists with $553 billion in assets under management said U.S. equities were in a late-stage bull market. Only 7% think U.S. stocks were in a bubble.

Six out of ten investors surveyed by BofA now expect a rise short-term rates in the next 12 months, the highest since January 2019. But they expect a more than 10% pullback in stocks if U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit above 2.1%.

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The benchmark 10-year yield is now hovering near 1.70%, holding below a 14-month high of 1.776% reached on March 30.

Latest comments

The Fed keeps on saying that its loose monetary policy is to encourage job creation. I don't see it happening.  The Fed's monetary policy is leading to a massive income rift.  The upper .01%, i.e., the Musks, Bezos, Zuckerbergs, etc., are adding billions to their net worth while the working and professional class remains under or unemployed. Companies are not obtaining loans to hire new people. Tech companies are simply using all the cash earned to buy back stock in order to increase the value of the company's shares. The markets, specifically the NASDAQ, has undoubtedly transformed into a bubble. The Fed has caused many Americans to take additional risks in the markets to keep up with the cost of living.  These risks have led retail investors to lose savings and take out additional loans. The Fed's decision to simply ignore the current state of the equity markets will ultimately lead to higher unemployment when the bubble eventually crashes.
It is not a 10% correction to be concerned about, but the future 70% + correction that is inevitable when the Fed screws things up so much there is no more saving the market for the rich.
QE stimmy for the gutless babies who can't make an honest buck. Share buybacks vs jobs.
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