(Bloomberg) -- A bond-market gauge of U.S. inflation expectations soared to the highest level in almost eight years as oil rose and data painted a picture of a strengthening economic recovery from the pandemic.
The 10-year breakeven rate, a proxy for where investors see annual inflation rates over the next decade, approached 2.4% Tuesday -- a level not seen since April 2013. Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the benchmark 10-year rate climbing around five basis points to 1.62%.
The moves, ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy decision Wednesday, came as reports showed soaring home prices and consumer confidence, and amid new U.S. guidance that inoculated people can socialize outdoors without masks. The market activity appeared to reflect a revival of the broader reflation trade -- which had recently been on pause as traders assessed the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus.
“All of the better data points to a higher-inflation narrative that the market is reflecting,” said Rob Daly, director of fixed income for Glenmede Investment Management in Philadelphia. “But the Fed is not about to react to that yet.”
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