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Wall Street sees higher probability of U.S. recession next year

Published 06/21/2022, 05:41 AM
Updated 06/21/2022, 12:31 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A girl speaks with her mother near a landmark statue of a bull in New York August 24, 2015.  REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo
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(Reuters) -Goldman Sachs forecast a 30% chance of the U.S. economy tipping into recession over the next year, up from 15% earlier, following record-high inflation and a weak macroeconomic backdrop due to the Ukraine conflict.

"We now see recession risk as higher and more front-loaded," Goldman economists said in a note on Monday.

The latest forecast comes about a week after the U.S. Federal Reserve rolled out its biggest rate hike https://reut.rs/3xKXhjZ since 1994 to stem a surge in inflation and as several other central banks also took aggressive steps to tighten monetary policy.

"We are increasingly concerned that the Fed leadership has set a high and inflation-specific bar for slowing the pace of tightening," Goldman said.

Meanwhile, economists at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) on Tuesday placed the odds of a U.S. recession for the next 12 months at around 35%.

"At this point, a recession is no longer just a tail risk given the Fed's predicament with inflation," Morgan Stanley said.

Goldman forecast a 48% cumulative probability of a recession over the next two years compared to its prior forecast of 35%.

"Our best guess is that a recession caused by moderate overtightening would be shallow, though we could imagine it dragging on for a little longer than it would with more policy support," economists at Goldman added.

UBS also said a recession would be shallow if it does happen, but it does not expect one in the United States or globally in 2022 or 2023.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A girl speaks with her mother near a landmark statue of a bull in New York August 24, 2015.  REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo

Goldman, before the Fed rate hike, had argued that there was a "feasible though difficult" way to rebalance the labor market and bring down inflation without a recession.

Elon Musk earlier this month told Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc executives he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and that the electric-car maker needed to cut staff https://reut.rs/3tQLC21 and pause hiring.

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